SanDisk Hits Magic Number; Semis Surge; Marvell, Micron Jump
How should we approach SanDisk now that it hit our price target? Also, let’s chart the market to see if it’s our ‘cup’ of tea….
How should we approach SanDisk now that it hit our price target? Also, let’s chart the market to see if it’s our ‘cup’ of tea….
Investors are expecting a more dovish Fed, but the market strength is narrow.
“The danger is that once a company reaches sufficient scale, the distortion itself becomes systemic. Every passive fund has to own it. Every major index becomes dependent on it. Pension funds, retirement accounts, sovereign wealth funds, insurance companies and institutional portfolios all become increasingly exposed to the same trade. The higher it goes, the more unavoidable it becomes.
And that’s the part that nobody seems to understand. If SpaceX eventually reaches $10 trillion through a combination of hype, narrative, mechanical flows and options-driven feedback loops, it won’t just be a SpaceX story anymore. It will become the market. Its movements will increasingly dictate the performance of indexes, ETFs and retirement accounts across the entire financial system. The market will effectively become a referendum on a single stock.
That’s how bubbles become systemic. Not when they’re small enough to laugh at, but when they become so large that everyone is forced to participate. The same mechanisms pushing prices higher today eventually create the conditions for instability tomorrow. When trillions of dollars of wealth become tied to a valuation that was never anchored to fundamentals in the first place, even a modest reversal can have consequences far beyond the stock itself.”
– Excerpt, Quoth The Raven
I have been writing ad nauseum about how market structure has created market risk and has distorted price discovery.
We may be seeing those distortions now and in the immediate future in the shares of SpaceX ($SPCX) — something no in the business media is discussing.
From my friend, Quoth The Raven:
SpaceX Could Get Dangerously Systemic
Position: None
While the overall sentiment was bearish, not all members feel that way.
Here’s the real reason, though, why the shares are rising.
The computer technician at my office just now asked me if I purchased the SpaceX ($SPCX) IPO.
Then, he went on to say, he owns it and also “a ton” of DRAM.
Position: None
As an Iran deal has landed (for real this time?) and SpaceX has taken off to a wild valuation, here’s my take on the market now.
Here’s how I’m playing a solid reaction to the Iran deal but no euphoria.
Lows on bond yields and highs on equities will dissipate as the day goes on.
Kevin Warsh’s Fed debut, Fox snaps up Roku and other headlines are moving stocks this morning.