Weekly Sentiment Survey: The Team Leans Bearish Overall
While the team leans bearish, not all feel that way. In fact, two members of the team are pretty much bullish. Read on to learn more.
Part 1: TheStreet Pro’s Sentiment Survey Results
Question 1
Direction: Over the next 2-4 weeks, how do you feel about the S&P 500?
Score: -3
Commentary: Of the 9 contributors who responded, 2 were bulls, 2 were neutral, 3 were bearish, and 1 was very bearish. Overall, that gives us a slightly bearish tilt to sentiment for the next couple of weeks.
Question 2
Positioning: How are you currently positioned?
Score: -3
Commentary: Our team is putting their money where their mouths are. Individual and overall scores for positioning matched identically with direction.
Question 3
Risk: How would you rate overall market risk?
Score: -7
Commentary: Even one of our bulls is concerned about the level of market risk. 7 respondents say that risk is elevated. 2 are neutral.
Question 4
Opportunity: Do you anticipate an increase or decrease in risk levels?
Score: -4
Commentary: Generally, the team is looking for an increase in risk. 2 members believe risk is on the decline, 1 is neutral, and 6 see increasing risk.
Question 5
Portfolio Activity
Score: -4
Commentary: This one’s more mixed. While 4 people were neutral, 1 person is rotating into more aggressive sectors. The rest are swatting at the market like bears with their claws out. 3 are rotating into safer sectors, while 1 is a broad seller of stocks.
Part 2: Qualitative Questions
SpaceX: What’s a reasonable valuation
With Elon Musk’s baby trading with a >$2 Trillion market cap, I asked the team what a reasonable valuation should be. Everyone thinks it’s overvalued here, though 2 members believe $1.75 T is reasonable. The rest are looking for a 50% haircut to $1 Trillion.
What companies will have the biggest impact this week?
Accenture ($ACN), SpaceX ($SPCX), and Apple ($AAPL) were listed as the stocks to watch.
What stock are you most bullish on?
Marvell ($MRVL): If you read the Portfolio commentary, you’ll already know why.
La-Z-Boy ($LZB): The company has no debt, no need for a data center in space, and it’s a name you can get comfy in.
Cannabis stocks: Uplistings, rescheduling, improving fundamentals
Progressive ($PGR): Shares have been under pressure despite a reasonable valuation, solid business long term. It’s a diversified, long-term hold. Also, commodities as inflation hedge and volatility expansion hedge through systematic trend.
Nuclear. We need energy, and it has been trading poorly with lower oil, which is a mistake
Micron ($MU): The recent pullback is a good buying opportunity
What stock/sector/market are you most bearish on?
Housing (2 votes!)
Mag 7 (2 votes!)
Long-dated, high-yield credit spread, because you’re not being compensated for risk.
Semiconductors: The parabolic move is starting to break.
What economic data are you watching most closely?
Inflation, PPI (3 votes!)
Fed policy meeting
Jobs (2 votes!)
Interest rates (2 votes!)
Commodities
What technical indicator are you watching most closely?
MACD for the S&P 500 (it had been rolling over, but started rising again)
50-Day SMA on the Nasdaq Comp (COMP just bounced higher off of that one)
Relative performance of stocks compared to long-term treasuries, the dollar, and commodity intermarket relationships (let’s ask Louis to write about that one!)
SOXL and SOXX shares outstanding
Slowing stochastics on the S&P 500 indicate decline in momentum
Part 3: Final thoughts
It’s easy to come up with a single number that represents our contributors’ opinions on the market. They’re bearish. But it’s important to remember that not all of them feel that way. Of the 9 who participated this week, only 6 are really bearish. So, while I try to distill their experience into a single number, the real value of TheStreet Pro comes from reading their commentary each day.
Thanks for reading.
