That’s a Wrap!   

Avatar photo Stephen Guilfoyle on August 26, 2026

That was a long, tough day. All of that macroeconomic data did nothing to spark the marketplace. We had to wait until the closing bell to see some of the type of action we, as traders, crave. 

Equities closed slightly lower on Wednesday as traders awaited Nvidia’s ($NVDA) results, among others. The S&P 500 ended almost flat at -0.02%, while the Nasdaq Composite gave back -0.08%. Can’t make that stuff up. 

Five of the 11 S&P sector SPDR ETFs wound up in the green, led by industrials ($XLI). Health Care ($XLV) was the weakest performer among these funds.

Treasury yields climbed. The U.S. 2-Year Treasury yield moved up 3 basis points to 4.21%, while the U.S. 10-Year Note paid 4.65% (+3 bps) by day’s end. The yield on the U.S. 30-Year Treasury yield ticked up 1 basis point to 5.17%.

As I send this note, we are still waiting on Nvidia. CrowdStrike ($CRWD), Okta ($OKTA) and Salesforce ($CRM) have all already reported. The market has react favorably to all three. 

Position: Long NVDA, CRWD equity 

Baseball Trivia Answer

Avatar photo Stephen Guilfoyle on August 26, 2026

Question: Since integration (1947), excluding the 2020 and 1981 seasons as there were not enough games played, only two MLB franchises completed an entire full-length season with a team batting average of .220 or less and less than 65 home runs hit in aggregate.

Name them.

Answers:

The 1963 Houston Colt .45s hit .220 with 62 HR while going 66-96 (9th in the NL).

The 1972 Texas Rangers hit .217 with 56 HR while going 54-100 (6th in the AL West).

Position: None

Baseball Trivia

Avatar photo Stephen Guilfoyle on August 26, 2026

Since integration (1947), excluding the 2020 and 1981 seasons as there were not enough games played, only two MLB franchises completed an entire full-length season with a team batting average of .220 or less and less than 65 home runs hit in aggregate.

Name them.

Position: None

Dude, Get a Dell?

Avatar photo Stephen Guilfoyle on August 26, 2026

See that run from January into late spring? Dell ($DELL), a firm that has been a real beneficiary of the AI trade, is currently up 307% year to date. Readers will see the gap higher this past May in response to first-quarter earnings. This makes up a significant portion of that parabolic spike that ended up looking like a flagpole. DELL stock, for the most part, has held and consolidated those gains, developing, as it traded sideways, a Bull Flag pattern of trend continuance. 

The upside pivot had been the top of the flagpole at $469. This does not change because there has been one failed attempt at breaking out from that pattern. The important thing for the bulls, in my opinion, is that the 50-day SMA has held as support. This implies that professional managers are buying stock at that level. 

Moving on to my favored indicators, Relative Strength is barely better than neutral. It’s not really not telling us anything directional. However, below the chart, the daily MACD is sort of sending us a bit of a warning. The histogram of the 9-day EMA has been in negative territory since mid-August, which is a short-term bearish signal. On top of that, the 12-day EMA is running below the 26-day EMA. That is also bearish looking. With both of those lines still standing above the zero-bound, the signal is less profound, but I would proceed with a bit of caution.  

Position: None

Microsoft, at a Glance 

Avatar photo Stephen Guilfoyle on August 26, 2026

In the Microsoft ($MSFT) chart below readers will see a huge Double Bottom pattern of bullish reversal with a $466 pivot. The shares broke out of that pattern, then faltered. It is at that point that these shares found support just above my pivot. I find that encouraging.

The MACD could be in better shape, but Relative Strength is fine. In addition, the stock looks likely to experience a “golden cross” at some time in the next week to week and a half. That could provide some bullish algorithmic activity when that does occur.

I have no problem reiterating my $582 price target for this name.

Position: Long MSFT equity

Charting Bitcoin

Avatar photo Stephen Guilfoyle on August 26, 2026

Looking at the chart for Bitcoin, readers will see two nearly simultaneous technical patterns running alongside each other that appear to be bullish in nature. There is a Falling Wedge pattern of bullish reversal that created the August breakout. We now also have a giant Double Bottom pattern, also of bullish reversal. That one may be a problem.

The pivot there sits at just about $81,700. This is close to where BTC appears to have hit resistance this morning. Should Bitcoin fail to take and hold that spot, this pattern will fail and the breakout is over. 

Checking my favored indicators, Relative Strength appears to have apexed and has now entered into a technically overbought state. That said, below the chart, the daily MACD, which is a momentum indicator, looks really bullish. 

The histogram of the 9-day EMA has been in positive territory since mid-August, which is a short-term bullish signal. On top of that, the 12-day EMA is running well above the 26-day EMA. With both of those lines still standing above the zero-bound, the bullish signal is amplified.

Everything really depends upon what happens at the $81,700 pivot point.  

Position: None

Late Morning Tweet

Avatar photo Stephen Guilfoyle on August 26, 2026

Positions: None.