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Author: Peter Tchir

Peter Tchir started his career at Bankers Trust and later at Deutsche Bank, running high-yield derivatives. He has traded all manner of fixed-income products, both on the sell side as a market maker and as a portfolio manager at a fixed-income hedge fund. During the financial crisis he ran the U.S. CDS-index business (made famous by The Big Short) for RBS. He was an early adopter of fixed income ETFs and has worked closely with the biggest traders, users and providers. Tchir received B.S. in mathematics and computer sciences from the University of Waterloo and an MBA with distinction from Vanderbilt University, where he also won the Matt Wiggington Leadership Award for outstanding performance in finance. Tchir describes his investing style as contrarian by nature and uses macroeconomic analysis to think about the next 3% to 5% move in the S&P 500, often a timeframe of weeks to months rather than years. When he’s not thinking about market movements (it’s rare!), you can find him applying his competitive spirit on the golf course.

Five Reasons I’m Real Nervous About the Chip Sector

Avatar photo Peter Tchir on July 27, 2026

Cheap Chinese computing, sagging artificial intelligence use and data center backlash are among the reasons I’m wary of the semiconductor sector.

Iran Escalation and AI Spend Leave Me Bearish Despite All-Time Highs

Avatar photo Peter Tchir on July 20, 2026

There can’t be much upside left.

7 Inflection Points Investors Shouldn’t Ignore Right Now

Avatar photo Peter Tchir on July 13, 2026

Inflection Point

The market’s next big move may hinge on these seven issues — but one one matters more than the rest.

With Inflation Heading Lower, We Can Expect a Midterm Rate Cut

Avatar photo Peter Tchir on July 6, 2026

A combination of lower inflation and improved data sources will push the Fed to cut interest rates soon.

Betting on a Rate Cut Might Not Be the Consensus, But Here’s Why it’s Likely

Avatar photo Peter Tchir on June 29, 2026

My interest rate projection appears to go against the grain.

Wobbly Iran Deal, 250th Birthday Boost, Benign Rate Outlook, Intel Update

Avatar photo Peter Tchir on June 22, 2026

Let’s look at just how fragile the deal with Iran appears, my take on the new Fed leadership, and a look at … Intel.

New Chair Kevin Warsh Wants to Bring Fed into the AI and Data Age

Avatar photo Peter Tchir on June 17, 2026

The new Federal Reserve chair outlined his vision for the future.

Sell the Iran Peace News as Rallies Have Been Exhausted

Avatar photo Peter Tchir on June 15, 2026

Lows on bond yields and highs on equities will dissipate as the day goes on.

A Lot More Than Rates Shook the Market

Avatar photo Peter Tchir on June 8, 2026

Market Selloff

Three stories played a much bigger role in the weakness than either Iran or rates.

Hospitality Surge Gives Fed No Choice After Strong Jobs Update

Avatar photo Peter Tchir on June 5, 2026

The rate environment could challenge a market that needs to absorb some significant IPOs.

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