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Author: Peter Tchir

Peter Tchir started his career at Bankers Trust and later at Deutsche Bank, running high-yield derivatives. He has traded all manner of fixed-income products, both on the sell side as a market maker and as a portfolio manager at a fixed-income hedge fund. During the financial crisis he ran the U.S. CDS-index business (made famous by The Big Short) for RBS. He was an early adopter of fixed income ETFs and has worked closely with the biggest traders, users and providers. Tchir received B.S. in mathematics and computer sciences from the University of Waterloo and an MBA with distinction from Vanderbilt University, where he also won the Matt Wiggington Leadership Award for outstanding performance in finance. Tchir describes his investing style as contrarian by nature and uses macroeconomic analysis to think about the next 3% to 5% move in the S&P 500, often a timeframe of weeks to months rather than years. When he’s not thinking about market movements (it’s rare!), you can find him applying his competitive spirit on the golf course.

My List of 12 Items Investors Should Watch Today

Avatar photo Peter Tchir on October 28, 2026

Here’s what I’m keeping a close eye on this morning — from Israel’s elections, to the Fed, to Meta and Treasuries.

Three Key Industries to Watch This Week

Avatar photo Peter Tchir on October 26, 2026

watching stock tickers

These areas could define much of what happens next with the economy and the markets.

Corporate Bonds Flash Warning

Avatar photo Peter Tchir on October 20, 2026

Warning

If the negative pattern develops, I’d be quick to hit the sell button.

What Worries Me About These Diesel ‘Deals’

Avatar photo Peter Tchir on October 12, 2026

Gas Prices

Trump says we’re going to buy it from Russia and that Europe will release reserves. It might not be so simple.

Rapid Change in Euro Credit Risk Hints at Deeper Problems

Avatar photo Peter Tchir on October 5, 2026

Whatever just happened between German bond yields and French and Italian bond yields was not on my radar.

Those Jobs Numbers? Looks Like the Joke’s on Us.

Avatar photo Peter Tchir on October 2, 2026

Jobs Report

We got disappointing data and big revisions. But can we take any of it seriously?

Taking Stock of China Meeting, Treasuries and Energy

Avatar photo Peter Tchir on September 28, 2026

U.S. dollar Chinese yuan

It seems that lately every meeting with China follows with this scenario. Also, my take on the TLT and LQD funds.

Geopolitics Takes Focus as Energy Prices Drive Economy

Avatar photo Peter Tchir on September 21, 2026

oil, markets

With rates currently tied so closely to energy prices, some positives would be great for rates.

After the Fed, Let’s Return to Regularly Scheduled Programming 

Avatar photo Peter Tchir on September 17, 2026

watching stock tickers

With the Fed decision out of the way, let’s discuss the market reaction, energy prices, the Japanese yen, ‘Cheap Chinese Compute’, Space, and how to position now.

Diesel Export Ban May Be Good for U.S.; Fed Predictions; My 3 Energy Stocks

Avatar photo Peter Tchir on September 16, 2026

Fed decision

Will the diesel export bans help U.S. pricing? Also, why a half-point hike could actually make sense, but why confusion will likely prevail.

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