Semi Shocker; Micron, Intel, AMD Hit Home Runs; Warsh Gets to Work
Let’s pop open the hood and look at the market in June and Q2 to zero in on the winners; also, why we must watch the new Fed head closely today.
Why I’m Eyeing Prices, Biotech and AI in Q3
As the second quarter skims some froth off the technology trade, let’s see why these three areas are key to watch in Q3.
The Market Has No Memory From Day to Day
The problem with shorting (or buying indices) late in the day or in the evening — as I often do — is that the fate of the general market’s opening is determined by the overall movement memory stocks.
And to predict/guess the opening price of $MU, $SNDK, $AMAT, $AMD, $INTC is a “fool’s errand.”
The market has no memory from day to day.
Position: None
Here’s Our New Micron Price Target After It Crushes Earnings Estimates
Not all of the semiconductor manufacturers are looking as good as Micron, however.
Cracks in the AI Narrative? Margins Suddenly Matter
SpaceX is round-tripping, Cerebras is getting marked down on margins, and concerns grow around OpenAI and Anthropic.
Weekly Sentiment Survey: A Bit Less Bearish but No Less Cautionary
This week, the team seems a little more mixed. But still, worries abound.
The Setup Bears Have Been Waiting for Is Here
Here are the three things that triggered the selling, what to watch now and my strategy for this difficult market.
Is SpaceX the ‘Trap Door’ to a Global Tech Beatdown… or an Opportunity?
Here’s why it’s not a time to panic and my trading plan for navigating this weakness.
Wobbly Iran Deal, 250th Birthday Boost, Benign Rate Outlook, Intel Update
Let’s look at just how fragile the deal with Iran appears, my take on the new Fed leadership, and a look at … Intel.
Why I Have Targeted Shorts in GRNY and JOET
* Among other reasons, I now want to be short momentum.
I plan to aggressively expand my ($GRNY) short now and to continue to modestly expand my ($JOET) short (despite my fondness for its portfolio manager Joe Terranova).
Let me give you two straightforward reasons for my tactics:
* Both ETFS are grounded in momentum-based investing. Here are the holdings of GRNY (GRNY Holdings – GRNY GRNJ GRNI | Fundstrat Granny Shots ETFs) and JOET (JOET – Portfolio – Virtus Terranova US Quality Momentum ETF | Morningstar). Given my increasingly negative near term market view I want to now be short momentum (i.e., the leading edge of market leadership). Shorting these ETFs satisfies my objective of shorting momentum and conforms to my conservative risk profile and appetite, as, for me, it is too dangerous (save very very short term forays on the short side) to position short in SNDK ($SNDK), MU ($MU), AMD ($AMD), INTC ($INTC), AMAT ($AMAT) et al.
* Both ETFs rebalance with strict multi month disciplines. This disadvantages both ETFs in the event of a violent change in sector leadership. In other words, why be long a momentum based ETF if one hand is tied behind its back?
Any questions about this, please comment in The Comments Section.
Short GRNY M JOET S