Why I’m Looking to Add Exposure After the Nasdaq’s Worst Day Since June
Thursday’s selloff isn’t a signal to cut exposure. It is a signal to look where the money is going.
AI Tweet of the Day
Position: None
Credit Spreads Are Widening
Bloomberg’s Global Corporate Credit Index (measure of aggregate bond spreads) have jumped to 129 basis points, the widest over the risk free rate since May 2025 (when they were recovering from the liberation day spike).
Perhaps not unrelated, Bloomberg is reporting that OpenAI’s valuation in its latest funding round is being trimmed to $1.25 trillion from $1.40 trillion.
Still that represents a nearly 50% increase from the $852 billion in its March funding round.
Oscillator Modestly Overbought
The S&P Short Range Oscillator remains in a modest overbought at 1.43% vs. 1.56%
I have no index positions on currently.
Position: None
TGIF – Friday’s Calendar
US economic data closes out the week with October’s flash S&P Global PMIs, final University of Michigan consumer sentiment and the Kansas City Fed’s services survey.
The Fed remains in its blackout period ahead of next week’s October 27–28 FOMC meeting.
No non-Bill (>1yr in maturity) US Treasury auctions.
Q3 earnings season continues with one S&P 500 component, American Express ($AXP).
Ex-US highlights are global flash PMIs, ECB consumer expectations survey, UK October GfK consumer confidence, September retail sales, Japan September national CPI, and Canada August retail sales.
From Christophe Barraud’s international Week Ahead rundown:
Just When They Stop Talking About Broadening Out, We Broaden Out
The market was down today, but the selling was orderly and concentrated in tech and the mega caps.
AI Selloff Gains Steam Hiding Solid Market Action Beneath the Surface
Worries about the sustainability of the AI trade surfaced once again, driving down a swath of related stocks, but other stocks rallied as Treasury yields dropped the most since August 2025, seeing equal-weight vs cap-weight the most extreme since 2024.
The Mags Are Ugly on a Day With Good Breadth
Why was the market down on a day that breadth was positive? It’s that either/or market again.
Thursday’s Closing Stock Market Stats
Closing Volume
– NYSE volume 14% above its one-month average;
– NASDAQ volume 14% above its one-month average;
– VIX index: up 14.39% to 19.08
Breadth
S&P 500 Sectors
% Movers
Heat Maps
Position: None