Elon Musk Just Predicted a Neocloud Bloodbath. CoreWeave Investors Should Listen.
AI demand may be booming, but SpaceX’s ability to shift GPU capacity gives it a flexibility most neocloud operators lack.
Neocloud Shakeout Sets Tone for Pivotal Week
With the Fed, Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon on deck, the AI-related spending debate comes to a head.
The AI Selloff Looks Like a Bear Trap. Follow the Bottleneck Instead.
One stop remains in our AI series, and it’s the one folks rarely think about.
Why a Little-Known Korean Company Is Sending Markets South
Elice differs from the likes of CoreWeave even as its shares descend 32.0% on IPO day.
Tech Bounces Back but Rising Yields Pressure Non-Tech
The megacap growth sectors went from worst (Friday) to first (Monday) as chipmakers snapped an eight-session losing streak, but rising Treasury yields left seven sectors, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and the equal-weight S&P 500 lower.
Here’s My Plan If the Startled Market Is Overcome With Fear
We got a whiff of panic, now what if real fear pushes up the VIX?
Select Upside, Downside Movers in the Morning
Upside
– $IRON +52% (Phase 3 APOLLO trial met all primary and secondary endpoints in erythropoietic protoporphyria)
– $AAME +41% (long-delayed 2025 annual report was filed, showing a return to annual profitability)
– $XLAB +24% (extends rally after securing an $8.2M AI-server order)
– $TCRT +20% (extends volatile rally tied to a proposed acquisition and financing of up to $350M)
– $MEDS +15% (extends rally after outlining peptide-compounding expansion and licensing a direct-to-consumer GLP-1 platform)
– $CLF +11% (Q3 profit and EBITDA beat expectations, Q4 EBITDA was guided higher and 2027 EBITDA is expected to exceed $4B)
– $NBIS +7.5%, $CRWV +7.7%, $BE +5.2%, $SMCI +4.1%, $IREN +5.9% (AI-infrastructure names rebound from last week’s financing-driven selloff as Treasury yields ease)
– $CRDO +4.7%, $TER +5.1%, $LRCX +4.6%, $AMD +3.7%, $MU +3.7%, $AVGO +3.1% (chip names rebound from last week’s AI-led selloff ahead of key sector earnings)
– $INTC +4.3% (JPMorgan upgrades to Neutral from Underweight as confidence in the turnaround improves)
– $VAI +4.0% (agrees to acquire an 18MW Ohio computing center)
– $DDOG +3.9% (Bernstein upgrades to Outperform and sharply raises its price target on stronger AI-consumption trends)
Downside
– $ACTU -9.1% (files to sell 40M shares with 20M warrants)
Weekly Roundup: The AI Trade Got Smacked. We’re Following the Data, Not the Fear
We put capital to work in two holdings, exited another and bumped up our price target for a long-time position.
Upside, Downside Movers in the Morning
Upside
– $TCRT +25.0% (extends its surge after closing a PAH-focused biotech acquisition and securing about $350M of financing)
– $NCPL +19.0% (regains Nasdaq minimum-bid compliance)
– $SITC +18.0% (declares a $3.00 special cash distribution after an asset sale and plans to delist from the NYSE)
– $FFR +9.0% (launches the $2,490 FF Nova humanoid robot and outlines a proposed roughly $200M robotics combination)
– $ASM +6.5% (Roth/MKM upgrades to Buy from Neutral and raises its target to $8)
– $SMTC +4.0% (raises Q3 sales, operating-margin and EPS outlooks at its data-center analyst day)
– $TSLA +3.0% (unveils a redesigned Roadster featuring rocket-style thrusters)
– $STLA +3.0% (better-than-feared Q3 shipment update showed consolidated volumes down just 1% year over year)
– $FRO +3.0% (tanker shares rebound as geopolitical disruption continues to support shipping rates)
– $RBRK +3.0%, $VRNS +2.5% (cybersecurity names rise after VRNS agreed to a $6.3B all-cash acquisition)
– $NOK +2.5%, $AAOI +2.0% (networking and optical names gain after SMTC raised its data-center outlook)
Downside
– GUTS -53.0% (REMAIN-1 met its six-month co-primary endpoint, but 5.1% weight regain versus 8.2% for sham and a still-pending one-year co-primary fell short of elevated expectations)
– $JAGX -29.0% (special preferred-stock dividend was paid, with each preferred share set to convert into five common shares on November 2, intensifying dilution concerns)
– $MDXH -17.0% (suspends FY revenue guidance after preliminary Q3 revenue of about $22.7M)
– $TLK -15.0% (Indonesia ADR slumps after a warning that the country could face an emerging-market index downgrade)
– $CRWV -5.0%, $IREN -3.5%, $NBIS -2.5% (AI-infrastructure names extend their selloff on debt-funded buildout and profitability concerns)
– $TRV -4.0% (Q3 beat with lower-than-expected catastrophe losses, but shares sell the news after elevated expectations)
– $SKHY -3.5%, $SNDK -2.5%, $MU -2.5%, $ALAB -2.5%, $WDC -2.0%, $AMD -2.0% (chip and storage names weaken as the AI trade de-risks amid higher-rate concerns)
– $IONQ -2.5%, $ASTS -2.5% (speculative long-duration growth names weaken as rate-hike expectations rise)
– $MSTR -2.5%, $HUT -2.0%, $CRCL -1.5% (crypto-linked shares trade lower amid broad risk-off positioning)
The Market Is Undergoing a Change in Character as AI Splits Into 2 Groups
The hyperscalers pay for AI out of their own cash. The companies that borrow to build it are starting to trade like rate-sensitive stocks.