Here’s What Scares Me About Semiconductor Stocks
Investor response is very different to earnings announcements from Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. Here’s why, and what investors should really be watching.
New Microsoft Price Target as $33 Billion Cloud Update Turns Heads
Waiting for answers on 2027 free cash flow and capex questions could keep the shares capped near term.
10 Stocks to Watch as the Rotation Builds
Mag 7 names are being sold — and that is good news for the rest of the market.
We’re Trimming Our Alphabet Price Target and Asking This Big Question
After last night’s earnings and cloud details, we must ask if GOOGL shares will be higher one year from now or not….
Trimming This Small-Cap Biotech on Strength as We Eye the Chart
Here’s what we’re seeing technically ahead of next week’s earnings.
Microsoft Up, Alphabet Down: Same Growth, Different Outcomes
Microsoft is rewarded for trimming its spending plans. Alphabet is hit on profitability, and it may be its worst earnings reaction ever.
Alphabet Miss, Why Fed Shouldn’t Raise Rates, All Eyes on Amazon
Higher statistical growth coupled with accelerating statistical inflation seems like a good reason to raise rates. I’ll explain why it’s not.
Thursday’s Schedule: GDP and Amazon Headline Another Busy Day
US economic data includes the advance estimate of Q3 GDP, which will incorporate September personal income and spending with PCE prices that will also be separately reported. We’ll also get weekly unemployment claims.
The Fed’s blackout period extends until midnight, with Fed speakers resuming Friday.
The non-Bill (>1yr in maturity) US Treasury auction is $44bn of 7-year notes.
61 S&P 500 components report, 14 of them with market caps over $100bn:61 S&P 500 components report, 14 of them with market caps over $100bn:
Before the open: Eli Lilly ($LLY), Mastercard ($MA), Merck ($MRK), Caterpillar ($CAT), Linde ($LIN), Bristol Myers Squibb ($BMY), Altria ($MO), Trane Technologies ($TT), Intercontinental Exchange ($ICE), Quanta Services ($PWR), Howmet Aerospace ($HWM), CRH ($CRH), Xcel Energy ($XEL), L3Harris ($LHX), Carrier ($CARR), Ameriprise ($AMP), D.R. Horton ($DHI), Ares Management ($ARES), WEC Energy ($WEC), Vulcan Materials ($VMC), Hershey ($HSY), Cognizant ($CTSH), WTW ($WTW), West Pharmaceutical ($WST), Incyte ($INCY), T. Rowe Price ($TROW), Bunge ($BG), Kimco Realty ($KIM), Avery Dennison ($AVY), Textron ($TXT), Baxter ($BAX), Huntington Ingalls ($HII), A.O. Smith ($AOS) and Norwegian Cruise Line ($NCLH)
After the close: Amazon ($AMZN), Intel ($INTC), Gilead ($GILD), SanDisk ($SNDK), Stryker ($SYK), Starbucks ($SBUX), Mondelez ($MDLZ), Republic Services ($RSG), Arthur J. Gallagher ($AJG), Digital Realty ($DLR), Monolithic Power ($MPWR), Coinbase ($COIN), Illumina ($ILMN), Twilio ($TWLO), ResMed ($RMD), Ingersoll Rand ($IR), Reddit ($RDDT), Veralto ($VLTO), Edison International ($EIX), First Solar ($FSLR), Alliant Energy ($LNT), Weyerhaeuser ($WY), GoDaddy ($GDDY), DaVita ($DVA) and Erie Indemnity ($ERIE)
Time not announced: Monster Beverage ($MNST) and AES ($AES)
Outside the US, Shell ($SHEL), TotalEnergies ($TTE) and Volkswagen ($VWAGY) report.
Ex-US highlights include a policy decision from the ECB, UK September net consumer credit and M4, Japan October consumer confidence index, Italy September unemployment rate, October consumer confidence index, economic sentiment and manufacturing confidence, Eurozone October economic confidence and Sweden Q3 GDP indicator.
From Christophe Barraud’s international Week Ahead rundown:
As I Await Microsoft, Alphabet Earnings, Here’s What I’m Not Doing
No one has an edge in guessing how a stock will react to earnings. The edge comes from having a plan for every outcome.
Earnings Misses Getting Light Treatment
Ahead of this week’s batch of earnings, a little surprisingly, misses have been getting a relative pass.
Per BofA, companies missing EPS estimates have outperformed the S&P 500 by 0.7 percentage points the day after reporting, vs. a typical 2-point lag since 2000.
FactSet finds the same: misses have fallen just 0.4% from two days before their reports through two days after, vs. a 3.1% five-year average.
Beats, in contrast, are being rewarded at roughly normal levels (BofA +0.7 pt vs. +1.0 average; FactSet +1.3% vs. +0.9%)
Overall, the average next-day move is 3.7% vs. 5.3% in 2Q.
