Trimming This Small-Cap Biotech on Strength as We Eye the Chart
Readers can see below that Ocular Therapeutix ($OCUL) will be the next name on our book to go to the tape with earnings, this coming Wednesday.
SoFi Technologies ($SOFI) put together a great quarter and issued impressive guidance to get our season off to a good start. Next Thursday, both Aspen Aerogels ($ASPN) and Peloton Interactive ($PTON) will report, so we’ll have a busy week here at the $10,000 Portfolio.
I noticed something technically concerning OCUL ahead of the numbers.
Let’s go to the chart:
Readers will see that OCUL has now formed a Double Bottom pattern of bullish reversal that encompasses all of 2026 and reaches back into December 2025. The pattern bears an $11.70 pivot, which may be a bit much to ask for as we have a $12 price target, but the setup has suddenly turned more bullish looking, which is, finally, a positive.
Yes, the stock did just suffer a death cross, but appears to be testing its 21-day exponential moving average (EMA) from below, nonetheless. This could potentially get the swing crowd, who turned against the stock in September, re-invested.
Relative Strength has greatly improved over the past week or so and now threatens to reach for a neutral reading. Below the chart, within the daily moving average convergence divergence (MACD), the histogram of the 9-day EMA has gone positive (bullish) while the 12-day EMA has crossed over the 26-day EMA (bullish). The negative would be that both of those lines remain below the zero-bound, which does slow down the optimism just a bit.
We are sticking with our price target. Maybe, we’ll adjust next week. That said, we are going to shave the position just a little this morning, on this welcome strength.
Thursday’s Intention
– Sell 20 shares of OCUL at or close to the last sale of $7.39.
Wednesday’s Intentions vs. Actual Trades
– Sell 10 shares of ONDS at or around the last sale of $6.69. (Bought the most recent 10 shares at $6.10)
– Sold 10 shares of ONDS at $6.67.
– Sell 10 shares of PL at or around the last sale of $14.52. (Bought the most recent 10 shares at $13.43)
– Sold 10 shares of PL at $14.27.
– Sell 4 shares of RKLB at or around the last sale of $58.23. (Bought the most recent 4 shares at $51.315.)
– Sold 4 shares of RKLB at $57.46.
Upcoming Portfolio Earnings
Ocular Therapeutix (OCUL), Wednesday, November 4
Consensus: adjusted EPS of $-0.35 on revenue of $14.3M.
Aspen Aerogels (ASPN), Thursday, November 5
Consensus: adjusted EPS of $-0.07 on revenue of $72.1M.
Peloton Interactive (PTON), Thursday, November 5
Consensus: adjusted EPS of $0.13 on revenue of $552.7M.
Rocket Lab ($RKLB), Monday, November 9
Consensus: adjusted EPS of $-0.02 on revenue of $257.2M.
Evolv Technologies ($EVLV), Tuesday, November 10, Semper Fi
Consensus: adjusted EPS of $-0.02 on revenue of $45.6M.
Ondas Inc. ($ONDS), Friday, November 13
Consensus: adjusted EPS of $-0.09 on revenue of $148.1M.
Planet Labs ($PL), on or close to December 10
Consensus: adjusted EPS of $-0.03 on revenue of $104.5M.
Current Positions
Long 60 shares of ASPN at $5.1083. Target Price: $10. Last sale: $5.44.
Long 50 shares of EVLV at $5.33.92. Target Price: $7.50. Last sale: $4.79.
Long 170 shares of OCUL at $8.1627. Target Price: $12. Last sale: $7.39.
Short one OCUL $9 Dec 18th call at $0.80, Last sale: $0.27.
Long 300 shares of ONDS at $7.7485. Target Price: $12. Last sale: $6.70.
Long 100 shares of PL at $18.9497. Target Price: $20. Last sale: $14.00.
Short one PL $17 Nov 19th call at $1.70, Last sale: $0.25.
Long 70 shares of PTON at $5.0654. Target Price: $9. Last close: $5.28.
Long 10 shares of RKLB at $53.667. Target Price $84. Last close: $56.65.
Long 125 shares of SOFI at $15.9644. Target Price: $24. Last close: $16.73.
Cash: $873.21.
Portfolio Value: $9,086.80, -9.1% from inception on March 24.
At the time of publication, Guilfoyle was long ASPN, EVLV, OCUL, ONDS, PL, PTON, RKLB and SOFI.
