Mid-Morning Market Stats
Volume
– NYSE volume 12% below its one-month average
– NASDAQ volume 15% above its one-month average
– VIX index: up 10.65% to 19.12
Breadth
Sector ETFs
% Movers
Position: None
Boockvar on Manufacturing PMI
From Peter Boockvar:
Manufacturing rebound continues but what now?
The S&P Global manufacturing PMI rose again to 55.7 from 55.1 and continues to be boosted by restocking of inventories. S&P Global said, “While there is better news from the manufacturing sector, we remain concerned as factory growth continues to be temporarily buoyed by inventory building amid supply fears. Supply delays grew more widespread in June.”
Also of note, “Most worrying was the further fall in employment, notably in the manufacturing sector. Factory job cuts are running at the highest since 2009 if the pandemic is excluded, reflecting concerns over the sustainability of the recent upturn in demand alongside worries over the escalating cost of raw materials.”
With pricing, “Although manufacturing input cost inflation moderated from May’s recent peak, it was the second highest for almost four years.” Prices charged were little changed m/o/m but at one year highs.
The service component does not include retail and wholesale trade nor construction which are key missing pieces of the US economy so we’ll rely on the ISM report next week instead.
This was the commentary on the outlook, and includes what they are seeing in the service categories they cover:
“Companies’ expectations for output in the year ahead improved in June to the brightest since February, lifting in both manufacturing and services. Improved outlooks were partly linked to hopes of an easing of war-related disruptions and price pressures. In both cases sentiment nonetheless remained well below long-run averages to point to historically subdued business confidence overall, often blamed on uncertainty over the economic outlook amid concerns relating to the ongoing impact of the war in the Middle East and government policies such as tariffs.”
Bottom line, the mixed and uneven economy continues on with the pockets of strength highly concentrated, as we know, in the AI data center construction and upper income spend, which is very dependent on the GenAI stock trade in turn lifting the indices. Also, as said here for months, the improvement in manufacturing is in part due to the front loading of orders and we’ll now see how it performs post Strait reopening.
US Manufacturing
Weekly Sentiment Survey: A Bit Less Bearish but No Less Cautionary
This week, the team seems a little more mixed. But still, worries abound.
From The Street of Dreams
Winnebago price target lowered to $32 from $38 at Roth Capital Roth Capital lowered the firm’s price target on Winnebago to $32 from $38 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm notes that the the industry struggles to find a bottom with the latest headwinds from the war in Iran, resulting in higher prices at the pump and an uptick in consumer borrowing costs while further pressuring consumer confidence and the desire to purchase a new RV, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Roth adds it is also monitoring the ongoing share erosion in towables, net of fresh gains at the legacy Winnebago brand.
Winnebago price target lowered to $40 from $48 at Benchmark Benchmark analyst Michael Albanese lowered the firm’s price target on Winnebago to $40 from $48 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm is updating estimates for the RV industry after having a check-in with multiple names during peak season, stating that affordability and sentiment are weighing on volumes.
Position: Short WGO (S)
Rocket Lab Loses Key Line: Here’s My Plan for the Stock (And One Other)
Readers will see below that $10,000 Portfolio member Rocket Lab ($RKLB) has lost its 50-day simple moving average (SMA). This will likely force at least some professional managers to lighten up on their exposure this week. So, will we.
I will leave my now dreamy $185 price target where it is for now, but the plan is to get out of a few shares and add them back in as RKLB approaches the 200-day SMA down around $74.
Other Recent Portfolio News
Alto Ingredients
On Monday, analyst Eric Stine of Craig-Hallum reiterated a “buy” rating on Alto Ingredients ($ALTO) as well as his $8 price target. Stine is rated at five stars out of five by TipRanks. Over the past two years, he has had a 50% success rate with an average return of 28.5%.
Amazon
On Tuesday morning, a JPMorgan research note reported that the firm’s analysis of Amazon Prime suggests potential value to U.S.-based members of more than 10-times the annual cost. Unbundling of Prime’s components, according to the report, indicates an estimated value of $1,440 per year, versus the $139 annual cost. Hence a price increase could be slated for 2027. Amazon ($AMZN) remains a best idea at JPMorgan with an Overweight rating and $330 price target.
On Monday, analyst Brian White of Monness reiterated a “buy” rating on AMZN while increasing his price target from $244.39 to $315 (Don’t ask me about the pennies). White is rated at five stars out of five by TipRanks. Over the past two years, he has had a 67% success rate with an average return of 28.4%.
Ocular Therapeutix
On Monday, analyst Tazeen Ahmad of Bank of America reiterated a “buy” rating on Ocular Therapeutix ($OCUL) as well as her $27 price target. Ahmad is rated at four stars out of five by TipRanks. Over the past two years, she has had a 58% success rate with an average return of 9.9%.
On Monday, analyst Yi Chen of HC Wainwright reiterated a “buy” rating on OCUL while increasing his price target from $21 to $25. Chen is rated at one star out of five by TipRanks. Over the past two years, he has had a 37% success rate with an average return of 0.1%.
Ondas
On Monday, Ondas ($ONDS) announced that it has secured more than $40 million in aggregate new orders during June for autonomous defense systems. This includes Counter-UAS solutions, Loitering Munition Systems, ground systems and related defense services from governmental and defense-focused clientele across multiple global markets. These new orders bring Ondas’ second-quarter-to-date order activity to more than $150 million.
Palantir Technologies
On Tuesday morning, Zeta Global ($ZETA) and Palantir ($PLTR) announced a strategic partnership to build an enterprise AI infrastructure layer that will connect operational intelligence, customer intelligence, and marketing execution. This is intended to combine AI infrastructure with Zeta’s intelligent decisioning and trusted data to bring a new standard of data-driven, agentic marketing to the enterprise.
SoFi Technologies
On Tuesday morning, SoFi Technologies ($SOFI) announced the launch of Composer, an AI-powered investing platform that helps investors move from investing ideas to automated execution within minutes. In a statement, the firm stated, “The platform offers three ways to get started. Members can: Design a custom strategy: An investor who believes technology stocks outperform in strong markets but wants to move into ETFs during periods of weakness can describe that idea in plain English, and Composer will help the investor build, test, and automate a rules-based strategy reflecting those inputs.”
Monday’s Intentions vs. Monday’s Actual Trades
I have some explaining to do. By the time my piece was published on Monday, these limits were not realistic. I normally do not violate limits expressed here in this column in implementing the corresponding trades in the actual portfolio. However, having to wait until our readers can act before we do, not only creates price discovery mismatches at times, but can create opportunity for human error.
On Monday, despite putting a $126 limit on the PLTR sell order, I, in error, sold 4 shares of PLTR at the market. The execution was not necessarily a good one, but given that I did not mind raising some cash, I did not cover the error and let it stand.
– Sell 4 shares of PLTR at $126 or better.
– Sold 4 shares of PLTR (in error) at $119.425.
– Buy 5 shares of PL at $28 or better.
– Nothing Done
Tuesday’s Intentions
– Sell 3 shares of RKLB at or close to the last sale of $95.25.
– Buy 5 shares of PL at $27.50 or better.
Current $10K Portfolio Positions
Long 125 shares of ALTO at $5.635. Target Price: $9. Last sale: $5.15.
Long 3 shares of AMZN at $258.0567. Target Price: $324. Last sale: $231.00.
Long 60 shares of $EVLV at $5.9895. Target Price: $8.50. Last sale: $5.45.
Long 200 shares of OCUL at $8.271. Target Price: $11. Last sale: $9.77.
Short one OCUL $11 Sep 18th call at $1.65, Last sale: $1.85.
Short one OCUL $9 July 17th call at $0.90. Last sale: $1.50.
Long 150 shares of ONDS at $9.7624. Target Price: $14. Last sale: $8.56.
Long 20 shares of PL at $32.865. Target Price $55. Last sale: $27.30.
Long 6 shares of PLTR at $131.8533. Target Price: $194. Last sale: $119.92.
Long 8 shares of RKLB at $77.9288. Target Price: $185. Last sale: $95.25.
Long 35 shares of $RXT at $6.4529. Target Price: $9. Last sale: $6.40.
Long 150 shares of $SIDU at $3.0909. Target Price: $6. Last sale: $2.94.
Long 135 shares of SOFI at $15.8617. Target Price: $24. Last sale: $16.65.
Short one SOFI August 21st $20 call at $1.02. Last sale: $0.86.
Long 20 shares of $SWBI at $16.125. Target Price: $19. Last sale: $16.18.
Long 35 shares of $VELO at $12.3231. Target Price: $36. Last sale: $22.66.
Cash: $554.81.
Portfolio Value: $11,100.31, +11.0% from inception on March 24th.
At the time of publication, Guilfoyle had positions in ALTO, AMZN, EVLV, OCUL, ONDS, PL, PLTR, RKLB, RXT, SIDU, SOFI and VELO.
Buying Cannabis
I’m agressively buying cannabis stocks.
Position: Long cannabis
Micron Hits Price Target: Should We Buy, Sell or Hold?
Here’s how we’re playing Micron after a stunning 850% gain.
My Tweet of the Day
* In response to my market structure concerns:
Position: None