Let’s Talk 13Fs

April 15th may be Tax Day but tomorrow, May 15, is the last day for companies to submit their 13F filings for the end of the March 2026 quarter. 

Advanced Micro Devices’ ($AMD) 13F filing showed it owned 65,516 shares of Marvell ($MRVL) valued at roughly $6.5 million at the end of March. The filing also revealed AMD retained positions in Sanmina ($SANM), with 1.15 million shares, and ABSCI ($ABSI), where it held 5.71 million shares. In addition, AMD disclosed a new position in Xanadu Quantum Technologies ($XNDU) valued at approximately $1.5 million.

Amazon’s ($AMZN) recent filing earlier this month showed it held shares in Astera Lab ($ALAB), Beta Technologies ($BETA), Marvell ($MRVL), Nautilus Biotechnology ($NAUT), and Rivian (RIVN). 

Looking at the SEC’s EDGAR website, Nvidia ($NVDA) has yet to post its 13F and in some respects that may be one of the more interesting ones. 

The thing I wonder about is how many investors are tracking these public company investments when they think about their price targets and valuation framework. My gut say “probably not many” and that’s probably because against Amazon’s market cap near $2.9 trillion, its $2.66 billion investment in those five companies is peanuts. 

It’s also interesting and confirming at the same time to see AMD and Amazon owning MRVL shares. 

Boy I would love me some of those peanuts. 

Position: The Street Pro Portfolio is long AMZN, MRVL, NVDA shares. 

Bob Lang on Breadth Divergence

From TheStreet Pro’s Bob Lang, talking about the massive breadth divergence…

There are different ways to analyze market breadth, but I have found 2-3 styles that tell me a great deal about how a trend is working and when there are differences with price. Let’s remember, the price action is the king of all indicators, no matter what other indicators might be telling you. Certainly we can throw up a yellow caution flag if there are divergences between, say price and breadth. Could this be a test? Maybe, but the market needs to prove that it is not significant.

On that accord, we had a noticeable difference in new highs and new lows that is being talked about. On 5/12 and 5/13 you can see the new lows beat out new highs for the first time in weeks, a stark divergence. That explains the early weakness on Tuesday but not the strength on Wednesday. These divergences between new highs and lows are not common but when they do happen it throws a caution flag in the air. This is due to the lack of momentum in new highs, and the push by mega cap-weighted issues moving higher while smaller stocks are trailing. Overall market momentum is slowing down, even as the indices advance with new all-time highs.

The Hindenburg Omen requires this diverging characteristic among others. There is a long track record of weakness following the “Omen.” When it triggers there is an “ominous” moment of selling — usually — and markets move down helplessly. No indicator has a perfect record, though and we have had many Hindenburg Omens over the past several years that scared many investors/traders out of the markets but did not pan out. Divergences like this however are real and we should pay attention at all times.

Below is the criteria for a Hindenburg Omen to occur:

New Highs and Lows: The number of NYSE new 52-week highs and new 52-week lows must both exceed 2.2% (or 2.5%) of total NYSE issues.

Higher Highs/Lows Ratio: New highs cannot be more than twice the new lows.

Upward Trend: The NYSE index must be in an uptrend, defined as being above its 50-day (or 10-week) moving average.

Negative Sentiment: The McClellan Oscillator must be negative, indicating a decline in overall market momentum

Succulent Summit

What did Trump, Xi, and crew dine on at today’s summit?

Reportedly , Beijing roast duck, ​ and beef ribs with dessert options for American guests that included tiramisu, fruits, and ice cream, and a “trumpet-shell shaped pastry.”

Position: … Hungry

Import, Export Prices Surge

U.S. import and export prices surged in April by the most in four years on oil-market pressures tied to the Iran conflict. This adds further evidence of higher inflation on top of this week’s April consumer price index and producer price index figures. 

The import price index rose 1.9% MoM, the biggest increase since March 2022.  

Export prices rose 3.3% from the prior month, also the most in more than four years.

And when we strip out petroleum, import prices rose 0.7% month-over-month in April, pointing to other factors than energy driving inflation pressures. 

Other factors like tariffs and supply chain issues perhaps?

Position: None

More on Netflix’s 2026 Upfront Via eMarketer

Netflix’s ($NFLX) ad-supported subscription tier now reaches 250 million global users, the company announced at its Wednesday Upfront presentation, up from 94 million last year. (Netflix stopped reporting subscription numbers in Q1 2025.) 

Its ad-supported tier will debut in 15 new countries this year. 

Netflix also secured another five NFL games, including a Thanksgiving game the company had been publicly gunning for and a Week 1 match in Australia.

Other announcements included an aggressive push into advertising across new content formats. Ads will soon come to its recently launched vertical video feed, as well as its video podcasts—though it’s unclear whether ad-free subscribers will be exposed to these ads. New personalization tools will also debut to improve contextual targeting.

Position: The Pro Portfolio is long NFLX

Visa’s Updated U.S. Economic Outlook

This morning Visa ($V) published its updated look at the U.S. economy:

Over the last couple of months, we assumed the conflict would be short lived. This month we have once again revised this view and expect the conflict to last through early summer. While we think most of the upside to oil prices has subsided, it will likely take some time for traffic to begin moving through the Strait of Hormuz and for oil production to recover enough to rebuild global inventories. As a result, we now see oil and gasoline prices remaining elevated through at least Q3 of this year, resulting in higher inflation for longer. 

This revised set of assumptions has a few material impacts on our outlook for this year and next. For starters, we now see inflation peaking around 3.9 percent on a year-over-year (YoY) basis this quarter as measured by the PCE deflator. The duration of elevated oil and gas prices has also led us to upwardly revise core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, suggesting that higher energy prices will be passed on through other consumer goods as well. The good news is that the labor market still appears to be on solid footing. With higher headline and core inflation and job growth continuing, we no longer expect any interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year and expect only one 25-basis-point cut in late 2027. 

Higher inflation also has the effect of taking a bite out of consumer spending as real (inflation-adjusted) income growth is expected to reach stall speed towards the middle of this year, weighing on real consumer spending. We now expect the economy to grow 2.2 percent YoY this year, down from our estimate of 2.5 percent last month. Inflation pressures should ease next year, which should help lift real income growth once again, but only modestly. We are not expecting much change in next year’s growth outlook, with GDP likely expanding at the same 2.2 percent pace as this year.

In the back of Visa’s May report, on page 3, thumbing through its quarterly forecasts, we find the following:

Q1 2026 GDP: 2.0%

Q2 2026 GDP: 2.3%

Q3 2026 GDP: 2.3%

Q4 2026: GDP: 2.6%

Q1 2027: 2.1%

Q1 2026 CPI: 2.7%

Q2 2026 CPI: 3.8%

Q3 2026 CPI: 3.7%

Q4 2026 CPI:  4.2%

Q1 2027: 3.7%

Position: None