Boockvar on ADP Jobs Report, Treasury
The following is from Peter Boockvar:
ADP jobs report/Treasury news
ADP said a net 86k private sector jobs were added in October, 19k above the estimate and the same pace as seen in September. Encouragingly, employers of all sizes saw job growth.
Sector wise in services, trade/transportation/utilities was the biggest contributor, adding 39k, followed by education/health, up 28k, leisure/hospitality up 19k and ‘other’ up by 10k. On the flip side, jobs were lost in professional/business services by 27k and information by 2k.
With goods, hiring was all driven by construction, rising by 13k, mostly offset by a decline of 8k in natural resources/mining and down 1k for manufacturing.
With respect to wages, the median increase for ‘job stayers’ was 3%, the same pace seen in September. For ‘job changers’, it held at 4.8% which remains the best since July ’25.
Bottom line, private sector job growth was good in October relative to the new normal with the more subdued increase in the labor force. Some pockets of weakness seen as stated but overall good job growth in the month. Certainly much is related to the data center build, helping construction and the trade/transportation/utility component, along with healthcare.
With respect to the Treasury refunding announcement, no changes were made and Treasury yields are little changed in response. But, some tweaks to the wording of the statement gives Bessent some future room to alter the maturity cadence of issuance to maybe even more shorter duration Treasuries.
