Upside, Downside Movers in the Morning

Upside:

-TRIP +13% (sells European restaurant reservation platform TheFork to American Express for $700M cash)

-CMTL +12% (earnings; sells most of Satellite and Space Communications segment to Gilat for $157.5M)

-MU +8.1% (multiple broker price target hikes)

-NBIS +7.2% (added to NASDAQ 100 index)

-SPCX +5.9% (momentum)

-CEVA +4.2% (Needham Initiates CEVA with Buy, price target: $55)

-PAYO +3.7% (confirms to be acquired by Nuvei at $7.40/shr in cash)

-DDOG +3.5% (Truist Raised DDOG to Buy from Hold, price target: $300 from $190)

-PSKY +3.1% (DOJ approves Paramount’s acquisition of Warner Bros)

-PGY +2.7% (closes upsized $800M AAA-rated personal loan ABS transaction

-PAYX +2.2% (CitiGroup Raised PAYX to Buy from Neutral, price target: $140 from $99)

Downside:

-ELTX -64% (Phase 2 AMPLIFY-7P Study did not meet the pre-specified primary endpoint of disease-free survival (“DFS”) in the intent-to-treat population)

-NMRA -49% (discontinues navacaprant Phase 3 development in KOASTAL-2 and -3 after missing primary and key secondary endpoints)

-TRAW -18% (Phase 2a tivoxavir marboxil influenza challenge study deferred after MHRA review)

-FOX -12% (ROKU to be acquired by Fox Corp at $160/shr in $22B cash-stock deal)

-PTRN -8.8% (Holders file to sell 8M Class A shares)

-FISV -6.1% (names new CEO; affirms FY26 outlook)

-BAND -4.6% (files to sell $275M convertible senior notes due 2032)

Positions: None.

Treasury Auctions, Economics Calendar

Treasury Auctions

8:00 a.m.: Fed Treasury Repo Reference Rate; 

11:00 a.m.: Treasury buyback announcement (liq sup-port); 

11:30 a.m.: Treasury hosts an $89 billion 3 and a $77 billion Month Bill Auction

Economic Calendar

Positions: None.

Boockvar Compares End-of-February Prices to Now

From Peter Boockvar:

Now vs Then

A big high five to all my fellow life long Knick fans and also to those more recent. It’s amazing the emotions that sports can bring.

For frame of reference I’m going to compare current prices of a variety of things to where they stood on the last trading day of February, right before the conflict began that weekend. Also note that many prices started to price in a deal beginning in early April when the White House started to signal that they wanted one. And we know the GenAI tech trade has been completely immune from the events of the Middle East.

WTI July contract

$66.18 vs $80.25 today

WTI Dec contract

$63.73 vs $74.81 today

Brent Aug contract

$70.88 vs $82.83 today

Brent Dec contract

$68.64 vs $79.95 today

DAP Nola Phosphate

$627.50 per ton vs $782.50 Friday

US Gulf Nola Urea

$470 per ton vs $386 Friday

US Natural Gas

$3.34 vs $3.04 today

TTF in Europe

$31.61 vs $44.09 today

Bloomberg Agriculture Index

54.56 vs 53.91 Friday

Aluminum

$3,140 per ton vs $3,426 Friday

Copper

$6.17 per pound vs $6.56 today

European Naphtha

$563.9 vs $706.23 Friday

Polyethylene

$6,393 per ton vs $7,853 Friday

US 10 yr Treasury Yield

3.94% vs 4.45% today

US 2 yr Treasury Yield

3.38% vs 4.04% today

US 10 yr Inflation Breakeven

2.26% vs 2.32% today

German 10 yr Bund Yield

2.64% vs 2.96% today

German 2 yr Bund Yield

2.00% vs 2.56% today

Japanese 10 yr JGB Yield

2.12% vs 2.58% today

Japanese 2 yr JGB Yield

1.23% vs 1.40% today

DXY

97.60 vs 99.55 today

NASDAQ 100

24,960 vs 30,228 indicated this morning

S&P 500

6879 vs 7520 indicated this morning

S&P 500 Equal Weight

8290 vs 8556 Friday

Euro STOXX 600

633.85 vs 637.56 today

South Korean Kospi

6244 vs 8546 today

I will also add my belief that the global trend that started last year to diversify capital and trade flows around the world and to be less dependent (though still very reliant) on the US will only continue. And certainly the work has begun to shift supply chains away from the Strait of Hormuz. Iran will only lose more leverage as the years progress from here.

My Tweet of the Day

Positions: None.