Boockvar Compares End-of-February Prices to Now
From Peter Boockvar:
Now vs Then
A big high five to all my fellow life long Knick fans and also to those more recent. It’s amazing the emotions that sports can bring.
For frame of reference I’m going to compare current prices of a variety of things to where they stood on the last trading day of February, right before the conflict began that weekend. Also note that many prices started to price in a deal beginning in early April when the White House started to signal that they wanted one. And we know the GenAI tech trade has been completely immune from the events of the Middle East.
WTI July contract
$66.18 vs $80.25 today
WTI Dec contract
$63.73 vs $74.81 today
Brent Aug contract
$70.88 vs $82.83 today
Brent Dec contract
$68.64 vs $79.95 today
DAP Nola Phosphate
$627.50 per ton vs $782.50 Friday
US Gulf Nola Urea
$470 per ton vs $386 Friday
US Natural Gas
$3.34 vs $3.04 today
TTF in Europe
$31.61 vs $44.09 today
Bloomberg Agriculture Index
54.56 vs 53.91 Friday
Aluminum
$3,140 per ton vs $3,426 Friday
Copper
$6.17 per pound vs $6.56 today
European Naphtha
$563.9 vs $706.23 Friday
Polyethylene
$6,393 per ton vs $7,853 Friday
US 10 yr Treasury Yield
3.94% vs 4.45% today
US 2 yr Treasury Yield
3.38% vs 4.04% today
US 10 yr Inflation Breakeven
2.26% vs 2.32% today
German 10 yr Bund Yield
2.64% vs 2.96% today
German 2 yr Bund Yield
2.00% vs 2.56% today
Japanese 10 yr JGB Yield
2.12% vs 2.58% today
Japanese 2 yr JGB Yield
1.23% vs 1.40% today
DXY
97.60 vs 99.55 today
NASDAQ 100
24,960 vs 30,228 indicated this morning
S&P 500
6879 vs 7520 indicated this morning
S&P 500 Equal Weight
8290 vs 8556 Friday
Euro STOXX 600
633.85 vs 637.56 today
South Korean Kospi
6244 vs 8546 today
I will also add my belief that the global trend that started last year to diversify capital and trade flows around the world and to be less dependent (though still very reliant) on the US will only continue. And certainly the work has begun to shift supply chains away from the Strait of Hormuz. Iran will only lose more leverage as the years progress from here.
