New Chair Kevin Warsh Wants to Bring Fed into the AI and Data Age
The new Federal Reserve chair outlined his vision for the future.
Loaded Up on Microsoft and Amazon
I bought a ton of $MSFT at $378.05 and $AMZN at $237.01 in the last 15 minutes of the day.
Position: Long MSFT (M), AMZN (M)
It’s A ‘Warsh Out’ Today
Position: None
Tesla Covered
I covered my $TSLA short (-$9) just now.
Position: None
Covered These Shorts
I have covered my $JOET ($45.10) and $GRNY ($27.33) shorts.
Position: None
Boockvar on Warsh and the Fed
From Peter Boockvar:
“I want succinct” said Kevin Warsh implicitly with easily the shortest FOMC statement I can ever remember. After saying that rates will remain unchanged today and they will maintain “ample reserves in the banking system” they went straight to the following commentary on the economy and inflation and that was it.
“Economic activity is expanding at a solid pace despite elevated uncertainty that owes, in part, to the conflict in the Middle East. Productivity growth and capital investment are strong. Job gains have kept pace with the workforce, and the unemployment rate has changed little.”
“Inflation remains elevated relative to the Committee’s 2 percent goal, in part reflecting supply shocks that have driven price increases in certain sectors, including energy. The Committee will deliver price stability.”
The End, I’ll add.
But we still have those darn dots and only one of 18 dots (likely Michelle Bowman) expect a rate cut this year with 8 seeing no change and the balance of 9 forecasting a rate increase of either one (3 dots), two (5 dots) and three (1 dot) and that explains why the 2 yr yield jumped to 4.14% from 4.06% right before. The 10 yr yield is higher by 3 bps to 4.46% and the 30 yr yield is up just 1 bp to 4.93%. So further flattening in the yield curve.
From the current effective fed funds rate of 3.63%, the year end 2026 median dot is now 3.8% from 3.6% and comes with a notable rise in their inflation forecasts. Headline PCE they now expect to end the year at 3.6% from 2.7% at the March projection. The core rate is now forecasted to be 3.3% which compares with 2.7% previously. Little changed is their unemployment rate estimate to 4.3% from 4.4% and a tweak lower in their 2026 GDP estimate to 2.2% from 2.4%.
Kevin Warsh, here now is the mic.
Position: None
4 Changes in the Fed’s New Projections, Including a Rate Hike Forecast
The bulk of these changes were expected, except for one.
My Long Buys Today
My only long buys today have been across-the-board on cannabis.
Position: Long cannabis
Covered My Index Shorts
With S&P cash down by over -50 handles I have covered my index shorts:
* $SPY $744.95
* $QQQ $726.18
I plan to reshort any rally.
From earlier today:
Early Wednesday Morning Trading (4:05 AM)
I am back adding to index shorts with S&P futures +20 handles and Nasdaq futures +260 handles:
* SPY $752.33
* QQQ $736.17
Position: Short SPY (M), QQQ (M)
BY Doug Kass · Jun 17, 2026, 5:44 AM EDT
Position: None
More Comments About Short-Term Trading
From the Comments Section:
Dougie Kass
On the issue of short term trading…
The other point I want to share is that our subs come in all stripes, temperments and objectives. No individual sub is alike as timeframes and risk profiles and appetites are all different.
Contributors, like myself, serve all of our subs.
To state the obvious, it is preferable to call the market right. I have not over the last three years – in which a buy and hold strategy was ideal (in hindsight) and preferable, incurring no tax liability.
That is elementary and tautological.
So being wrong I have tried (and succeeded) in taking a trading approach to engineer profits while being wrong on market direction.
(I have taken out some of my comments that relate to blocking some subs that I have determined to be rude and that I don’t want to interface with).
We do have many subs that are buy and hold oriented- but based on my interaction, that is likely for only a portion of their portfolios. It seems they nearly all trade outside of their long term investments.
Among the things they miss is that there are a large amount of subs who have non taxable accounts (IRA, pension plans,etc.) and there are foundations, etc. that are not directed by tax consequences. Many of us manage other people’s money. In my hedge fund, the majority of my investors are not taxable. Those subs who are critical fail to understand this. Additionally there are tax avoidance strategies that can offset short term gains.
As I stated in today’s comments (and all week), there are a number of subs who are griping and growing impatient with cannabis stocks’ underperformance. They are unwilling to hold (and accumulate) weak sectors, yet seem to have long term horizons.
So, everyone is different.
We also have a large portion of our sub base that are trading oriented. And if we look at the proliferation of leveraged ETFs and ODTE options that have an investment timeframe of less than 24 hours – that is a large and rapidly growing population of general interest by parties in short term trading.
Finally, as I have stated repeatedly in the past I created a Best Ideas List that has had longs (and shorts) on for many years. I have said repeatedly that if you dont agree with my negative views onthe market it is a good menu to select longer term investments.
Position: None