The Problem With Overconfidence
This morning’s stock futures are getting pounded. The S&P futures are -75 handles and the Nasdaq is -490 handles.
Yesterday I wrote about something that I find disturbing — continued and frequent hubris on the part of commentators, panelists and guests in the business media. I suppose if you say stuff confidently viewers may view talking heads as knowledgeable (We all know that confidence and investment successes are not equivalents!).
To me, presenting overconfidence in delivery is worse than being wrong. It creates a false sense of security and is a disingenuous character trait as it relates to a market that has an unprecedented range of outcomes (some of them being adverse).
Let me start by saying that I am quite fond of Joe Terranova. On Wednesday I wrote about this as it relates to Joe’s confident presentation and view (“talking his book”) that large-cap tech is resuming its momentum.
As for me, I am often wrong and always in doubt.
From yesterday:
My Comment of the Day
Dougie Kass
I couldn’t disagree more with Joe Terranova on Halftime now (I am not posting on Twitter!).
Though I am not high on large cap tech my disagreement is not that I don’t think AI related stocks will begin to outperform.
It is the degree of confidence/hubris that he is expressing in his view that the AI momentum trade will resume.
Position: None
BY Doug Kass · Oct 21, 2026, 12:25 PM EDT
Position: None
