No Time to Let Your Guard Down
As tensions with Iran escalate, major domestic equity market indexes trade close to all-time highs, and oil rises, you best be ready.
Is Oil Telling Us Something?
As peace eludes and perils grow in Middle East, why hasn’t oil run wild … yet? Also, the ‘BUZZ’ on chips and trouble n China.
Some Divergences Are Emerging
Not much changed in the market last week but there are some signs of small divergences.
That’s a Wrap!
The major equity indices closed modestly lower on Friday, one day after the S&P 500 notched a fresh record high close. The S&P 500 gave up 0.1% on the session while the Nasdaq Composite lost 0.2%. Six of the 11 S&P sector SPDR ETFs finished higher, led by Energy ($XLE). Healthcare ($XLV) was the weakest of these funds.
Treasury yields shifted higher as bond traders made sales. The U.S. 10-year note paid 4.69% (+4 BPS) by day’s end while the two-year note paid 4.17% (+2 BPS). Stocks started out the day on strength after July U.S. retail sales fell 0.6% month-over-month to $763.6 billion. This was considerably softer than expected and marked the largest one months drop for the series in more than a year.
Sandisk ($SNDK) was the star of the S&P 500, gaining 7.4% on continued strength one day after the firm’s investor day, where management outlined strong long-term growth and margin targets for the business. Applied Materials ($AMAT) at -5.1% for the day was a laggard, but Broadcom ($AVGO) led the way lower at -5.9%.
OK, gang. It’s Friday night. I need a break. I bet you do, too. With a little luck and the blessings of a merciful God, Dougie should be back at the helm on Monday. May all of you have a safe and enjoyable weekend. Sarge out.
Positions: Long SNDK equity.
Wednesday Afternoon Overview
Energy ($XLE) vs Financials ($XLF) ; Tech ($XLK) vs Consumer Discretionary ($XLY) as of 2:45 p.m.:
AI Trade Looks Pretty Smart, For Now
CoreWeave’s earnings blow away expectations and FoxConn looks pretty sharp. Let’s see what these could say about the overall state of the AI trade.
Nvidia’s $500B Plan, Intel Raises Cash, Iran Digs In
Here’s my take on Intel after it taps the capital markets, that huge Nvidia plan, and the lack of a deal with Iran.
Sometimes Bad Is Good, and Sometimes Bad Is Bad
Let’s sort through what those Friday jobs numbers mean for rate-hike chatter, what’s happening (or not happening) on the Strait, and why Trump is in a tough spot.
The Goldilocks Traders
Will jobs be not too hot nor too cold? Is a palatable Iran deal on the table? And is the market charting out a rally? Let’s dig in.
Trump’s Ultimatum, Manufacturing Cranks Up, Palantir Pops
Trump means it … this time … on Iran; U.S. manufacturing churns higher, and Palantir? Wow!