The Price Problem
After the rate hike, here’s my forecast for Fed action — and my analysis of the Fed’s limits and what more hikes could mean for the economy.
Diesel Export Ban May Be Good for U.S.; Fed Predictions; My 3 Energy Stocks
Will the diesel export bans help U.S. pricing? Also, why a half-point hike could actually make sense, but why confusion will likely prevail.
AI Alarm Rattles the Cages as a Big Fed Decision Awaits
Amid dystopian worries and calls for a slowdown, AI leaders speak out. Oh, and we’ve got some other stuff happening too.
Bessent’s Big ‘Bazooka’ Not Big Enough, Trump’s $5G Promise, Debt Woes
Let’s see why the $6B repurchase plan let down investors and bond traders, check the math on Trump’s $5G ‘dividend’ promise, and … a Nvidia probe.
Two Down, Two to Go
Wednesday was another tough day up and down Wall Street. Crude oil was up almost 4%. Treasury yields continued to rise. Oh, and equities ended up getting slapped around a bit.
The S&P 500 gave back 0.48% for the regular session while the Nasdaq Composite surrendered 0.64%. Yes, yields still went the wrong way despite the fact that the U.S. Treasury Department announced that it would triple its liquidity stability program buyback operation to $6 billion worth of 10-Year to 20-Year bonds.
This move followed the Treasury’s announcement last month that it was going to at least double those repurchases.
Energy ($XLE), for obvious reasons, was the only S&P sector to show gains on Wednesday as the Industrials ($XLI) led 10 sector SPDR ETFs into the red. Datadog ($DDOG) and Meta Platforms ($META) were the top performers in the S&P 500 for the day. The downside was led by Casey’s General Stores ($CASY). That stock was pummeled for a loss of 14.2%.
Two down, two to go. Dougie is still off tomorrow, but I will not be your tour guide. One of my colleagues will be at the helm.
I wish you all a peaceful evening. It has been a pleasure to work with you these past two days, as it always is. May God guide you and hold you until we meet again.
Sarge
Position: None
Is the ‘House’ on Solid Ground?
I saw a bit of myself in Sec. Scott Bessent’s ‘I am the house’ talk, and I didn’t like it. Let’s look a the yen, trade war with Canada, out of control AI.
What If ‘Equal Weight’ Isn’t Equal?
Now I know why the RSP doesn’t look like any breadth indicators I follow.
A Chill Blows Through Wall Street
Summer fun has ended as we enter a seasonally tough month, a potentially volatile October, uncertainty in Iran, and an escalating trade fight with Canada.
Something’s Not Working Out
When’s the last time you got a call from the Bureau of Labor Statistics? Let’s look at employment and why I kinda agree more with Christopher Waller than Kevin Warsh right now….
As the Headlines Heat Up, I’m Focused on This Bond Fund and Energy
Summer is ending but the chaotic news flow won’t quit, so here’s my take on current events and how to trade them.