* The 10-year Treasury note is yielding 5.345% (+7 basis points) this morning…
Stock futures lower (S&P futures -32 handles, Nasdaq futures -172 handles), likely tied to another new low in $TLT (-$0.60), rise in bond yields.
As well, stories of escalated attacks in Iran are lifting crude by four dollars a barrel.
Position: Short SPY (S), QQQ (S)
Breadth collapses, new lows swamp new highs and the Russell 2000 sits on its 200-day average.
* I continue to be short in a bull market…
Once again, I thought underneath the hood there was less than meet’s the eye.
Though the averages showed a robust gain, Nasdaq breadth was negative:
And, Nvidia ($NVDA), which was +$5 per share on the day at its high, basically closed flat.
Treasuries were modestly higher but it looked more like a dead-cat bounce than a reversal to lower yields. This morning $TLT is -$0.40, so Tuesday’s slightly lower bond yields have been reversed.
“Forward thinking” financials continued to show no spark.
Finally, despite the record high in the indices, there were twice as many lows as highs on the NYSE:
We moved from small to medium-sized short the indices on yesterday’s market advance.
Position: Short SPY (M), QQQ (M)
Bonds slid again, but stocks posted solid gains as buyers hunted for some of the worst performers.
$TLT and Bond prices at the day’s low and bond yields at the day’s high.
I am expanding my short book.
Position: None
Whatever just happened between German bond yields and French and Italian bond yields was not on my radar.
Yields remain in the driver’s seat, with bond shorts at extremes and a light week on the calendar.
Odds of an October hike fell to about 20%, but bonds gave back their gains and rates kept rising.
The weakness in gold ($GLD) — from $385 to $381 — is surprising considering the weak jobs data and the softness of the U.S. dollar. ( A similar reversal just occurred with $TLT from $78.32 to $77.75).
My reaction is to sell more $SPY $771.93 and QQQ $753.76 …
For now it is unclear what the message of the reversal in precious metals and bonds mean – but I am probing and thinking.
Note that we sold out our $GLD long (for the fourth time and for a profit) on Wednesday:
Here is one of today’s things:
* I sold my GLD at $386.34
BY Doug Kass · Sep 30, 2026, 9:53 AM EDT
Positions: none.
Mainstream media coverage is catching up to the damage under the surface, while debt and refined-fuel shortages keep rates stubborn.
