New Planet Labs Price Target After SpaceX Satellite Launch
We’re moving price targets on three small-cap names amid technical developments.
More Bullish Tech Headlines
In addition to the well-received SpaceX ($SPCX) headlines detailed last night (SpaceX Climbs as Musk Floats Tesla Merger), some other stories are boosting Tech shares this morning:
Shares of server maker Super Micro Computer ($SMCI) are up over 12% premarket after the firm released preliminary quarterly numbers for the period ending September 30, saying it expects revenue of $18.5 billion to $19.5 billion for the quarter. That compares with its earlier forecast of $14.5 billion to $15.5 billion and an average analyst estimate of about $15 billion. The company also raised its gross margin forecast to 12% to 12.5%, from 10.4% to 10.8%
In addition, the Wall Street Journal is reporting that Anthropic’s draft prospectus signals coming spending on computer and power of as much as $750 billion in coming years, with $111 billion on contracts with Alphabet’s Google Cloud ($GOOGL), $110 billion with Amazon Web Services ($AMZN) and $31 billion with Microsoft ($MSFT) “regardless of actual usage.”
Anthropic also agreed to spend up to $86 billion renting Nvidia ($NVDA) chips from smaller AI cloud providers Nscale and Lambda.
And sales are growing at a blistering pace. The Journal reported revenues had grown to $16.3 billion in the six months ended June 30, up from $1.1 billion in the year-earlier period. That outpaced the nearly $9 billion on computing capacity and infrastructure, up from $2.3 billion.
Still it recorded a net loss of $80.7 billion, the vast majority ($72 billion) “tied to changes in the value of convertible notes and other instruments the company issued to raise funding.”
And finally, several Asian countries with large tech exposure (South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, etc.) are reporting strong export numbers led by semiconductor and other Tech shipments.
- Bloomberg reports that South Korea’s exports the first 20 days of October, adjusted for working-day differences, rose 65.9% from a year earlier. While down from the 89.8% increase during the same period in September, it is otherwise a record. Semiconductors surged 222.5% from a year, while products increased 68.3%, and automobile exports almost 41%.
- Also from Bloomberg, Japan’s September export growth rose 16.7% from a year earlier. While it missed expectations for a 21.2% increase, shipments of semiconductors and chip-making equipment surged 49.4% and 43.9% respectively (autos were +15.1%). Shipments to the US gained 22.9%. Those to China and the European Union advanced 8.6% and 10.5%, respectively.
- Reuters reports that Taiwan’s export orders jumped 62.4% in September to a record $114.21 billion “credited to strong demand for AI, high-performance computing and cloud services applications.” The Ministry of Economic Affairs forecast October as rising between 62% and 67%. “Taiwan’s orders in September for telecoms products were up 87.3% from a year earlier, while those for electronic products jumped 71.0%.”
Netflix Down, SpaceX Up: Upside/Downside Movers in the A.M.
Upside
– $SMCI +12% (preliminary fiscal Q1 revenue outlook was raised well above expectations, with gross-margin upside)
– $SPCX +8.2% (Q3 revenue and profit crushed expectations, marking its first quarterly profit since the IPO, while special committees evaluate a potential TSLA merger)
– $CRDO +7.2%, $VRT +6.7%, $DELL +6.9%, $LITE +5.6%, $HPE +5.0%, $COHR +4.6% (AI-infrastructure suppliers rise as the SMCI outlook and SPCX AI-compute results reinforce data-center demand)
– $WDC +4.0%, $SKHY +3.7%, $SNDK +3.7%, $STX +3.6%, $MU +3.1% (memory and storage names gain on the stronger AI-infrastructure demand read-through)
– $APLD +4.0% (Texas AI data-center agreement and bullish analyst action)
– $INTC +2.3%, AMD +2.1%, $NVDA +2.0% (chip stocks rise as strong AI-compute and server demand updates lift the broader complex)
– $TSLA +1.4% (special committee formed with SPCX to evaluate a potential merger ahead of earnings)
Downside
– $TKNO -30% ($40M primary offering priced at $5 per share, a steep discount to the prior close)
– $NFLX -7.0% (Q3 profit beat, but the Q4 sales outlook missed and the 2026 advertising-revenue forecast was cut to $2.7B from $3B)
– $ISRG -6.7% (Q3 beat, but U.S. procedure growth slowed, instrument pricing reductions were outlined and the high end of the procedure-growth outlook was cut)
– $T -5.6% (Q3 beat and FY EPS guidance was raised, but postpaid phone additions missed expectations amid satellite-competition concerns)
– $DHR -3.6% (Q3 beat and FY EPS guidance was raised, but the Q4 core-growth outlook remained modest with a respiratory-revenue headwind)
– $TMO -3.0% (sell-the-news reaction after a Q3 beat and raised FY guidance)
– $ACN -1.5% (Baird downgrades to Neutral from Outperform on valuation and slower organic growth)
SpaceX’s Super-Sized AI Capacity Plans: 8 Key Items Shaping the Stock Market Wednesday
Super Micro Computer crushes expectations while United Airlines and Alaska Airlines confirm energy input concerns. Those and other headlines are moving the market this morning.
SpaceX (SPCX): Post-Q3 Target Raises, October 21
The SpaceX ($SPCX) quarter beat on revenue and EBITDA across all three segments (Intelligence/AI, Space, Connectivity). The only blemish was a miss on Starlink subscriber adds, offset by better pricing. Guidance calls for revenue of $33B to $37B by Q1 FY27. Management says it expects 2 to 3 GW of compute by year-end 2026 and plans to add 10 GW in 2027, well above prior expectations, and told JPMorgan it is not considering raising equity.
Price targets:
- JPMorgan: $500 from $240 (Overweight). Biggest move. Says the forward driver is superintelligence, not the segment beats.
- Cantor Fitzgerald: $345 from $246 (Overweight). Sees $500B to $1T in year-end 2027 ARR, self-funded compute expansion, and chip supply constraints giving SpaceX pricing power.
- Barclays: $300 from $254 (Overweight). Model update on the beat.
- Morgan Stanley: $300 reiterated (Overweight). Says the story is only now getting interesting.
- Citi: $240 from $200 (Buy). Also opened a 90-day upside catalyst watch, pointing to Q4 beat-and-raise continuation and Starship Flight 15 as a major reusability catalyst.
- UBS: $230 from $210 (Buy). New compute deals ramping in Q4, Starship catch milestones, Grok improvements.
- TD Cowen: $224 from $200 (Buy). Estimates up on the beat.
- Susquehanna: $176 from $173 (Neutral). The lone holdout. Flags execution risk on the compute buildout and dependence on Starship commercialization.
The Crude Conundrum
Let’s look at sticky oil prices, even after the flow largely returns from the Middle East. Also, could Tesla merge with SpaceX?
More Tales From Nvidia: And Lessons of AI Burn From SpaceX (Issue #263!)
Below are two charts that speak volumes about the economics of AI.
SpaceX ($SPCX) just reported 3Q2026.
All of a sudden, AI (ergo data centers) is their biggest business. Along with that, cash and cash equivalents came in at $51.29 billion, versus an estimate of $91.2 billion. CAPEX for their AI segment was $16.4 billion versus $5 billion of EBITDA. Is this compelling?
I guess they can buy all the revenue they want; good thing the cost of financing it is so low??? Feels like double dilution is on the come here. Continued issuance to do whatever they are doing chasing WeWork landlord revenue, and dilution to potentially acquire Tesla ($TSLA), which is becoming more and more apparent.
Clearly Elon Musk wants to goose SPCX stock where he has much more of his net worth (~70%) to acquire TSLA (~25%) to hide it, on more favorable terms for SPCX (ergo himself).
This is the same trick Musk used when Tesla acquired Solar City. Hide the biz that can’t meet its promises, then to the next B.S. story.
Boy did that thing burn cash, holy heck, never seen a whiff this bad. Good thing borrowing costs are low these days. Oopsie:
In any case, at the rate AI is burning cash (and sucking down credit and equity), the 10-year Treasury will be yielding 6% in no time!
Position: None
SpaceX Beats, but the Test Is Whether It Can Build on the Gains
Last quarter’s strong AI beats faded. Will it be different this time? Here’s my plan for SPCX.
Netflix Lowers Guidance and I Call More B.S. in the Business Media
Fan fave Netflix ($NFLX) materially reduced forward guidance after the close of trading — and its shares are trading -$4 (or -6%) in premarket trading.
Here is the company’s release: FINAL-Q3-26-Shareholder-Letter.pdf
Netflix vs. You Tube
From my Diary yesterday afternoon and last night on Netflix:
My View on Netflix
Repeating for emphasis, I would not bottom fish in Netflix (NFLX).
I expect in line-to-better 2Q2026 results but a possible lower forward guidance as margins are pressured.
From last month:
Netflix Is Too Low to Short and Too High to Buy
I would continue to avoid buying (and “bottom fishing”) in Netflix (NFLX) for the reasons I have previously mentioned:
* Netflix has nearly saturated the domestic market (as well as many other developed countries). These markets are significantly more profitable than the non developed arena.
* Future Netflix sales/profit growth will come from developing country markets that provide substantially less revenue (and income) per subscriber.
* Netflix’s original content programming has been unspectacular over the last 12 months (or more) — and existing content has suffered.
In the past I have been short NFLX, but it is no longer priced as an attractive short.
Position: None
BY Doug Kass · Sep 22, 2026, 1:50 PM EDT
Position: None
BY Doug Kass · Oct 20, 2026, 4:09 PM EDT
Post Script:
Netflix, according to AI, was among the most recommended equities of the panelists on the “Show:” But viewers, in light of no timestamping or memorializing of recommendations, probably have no clue.
Though, as seen by my tweet above, I have stopped using X as a forum for my constructive criticism, I have a clue. Here is a recent recommendation of Netflix by one of the more particularly smug panelists seen on the Noon Show:
Trade Tracker: Steve Weiss buys more Netflix
We will likely never hear the name (Netflix) again from this particular panelist — or any of the others. As night follows day none of the panelists have modelled Netflix, spoken to management (and its competitors) or have performed any serious analysis.
Images and franchises are polished by panelists showing successful investment recommendations and not their conspicuous and frequent investment boners.
Instead the shows and panelists will likely all discuss SpaceX ($SPCX) today (whose shares are up by 6% after their EPS release)..
Position: None
SpaceX Climbs as Musk Floats Tesla Merger
SpaceX ($SPCX) shares rose nearly 8% after hours following an earnings call packed with bullish forecasts:
- CFO Bret Johnsen said SpaceX’s revenue would reach $33 billion to $37 billion in the first quarter of next year, well above the $22.2 billion analyst estimate, per LSEG. CEO Elon Musk went further, saying he expects the company to reach an annual revenue run rate of $500 billion to $1 trillion by the end of 2027. Analysts project full-year 2027 revenue of about $110 billion, according to LSEG, which would be more than double this year’s, per CNBC.
- On its next launch, SpaceX aims to recover not only the booster but also the ship itself. “It will be the first time an orbital launch vehicle has been totally recovered,” Musk said. “We expect the Starship to fly weekly in the first half of next year,” he later added.
- On its Terafab project, Musk said the company has seen “some significant potential breakthroughs in chip fabrication, but I don’t think I should discuss that on an earnings call.”
- SpaceX currently has 1.7 gigawatts of compute, up from 0.6 gigawatts a year earlier. Musk expects 2.5 to 3 gigawatts this year and is aiming for 13 gigawatts by the end of next year.
- Musk said he expects to launch rockets from a planned “Starbase Louisiana” site in less than three years.
- Musk said SpaceX would keep investing heavily in more powerful Starlink satellites while building out “terrestrial networks” to help the business “become a major mobile carrier” in the U.S.
- SpaceX has been piloting its Grok Bot with a few trusted enterprise partners and expects wide deployment within a few weeks, Musk said.
- The company is targeting an orbital refueling mission early next year, a key step toward a Mars mission.
But perhaps the biggest news was Musk revealing that both SpaceX and Tesla ($TSLA) have formed special committees to discuss a merger. “Do I think it would be a good idea? Yes,” Musk said. “There’s a lot of merit to combining the companies,” he added. “I think it would be a good idea, but it’s really up to the special committees of both companies.” Tesla is up over 2% in the overnight session.
“There’s no question that Musk wants the merger, and he wants to get it done sooner rather than later,” Gene Munster, founder of Deepwater Asset Management, which has invested in both companies, told Bloomberg. “It was a key question on the call, and Elon said it was a good idea about three times. He’s getting people excited about it, and he wants to bump up the enthusiasm.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/live-blog/2026-10-20/spacex-third-quarter-earnings-live-coverage
https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-sp-500-nasdaq-10-20-2026
