SpaceX (SPCX): Post-Q3 Target Raises, October 21
The SpaceX ($SPCX) quarter beat on revenue and EBITDA across all three segments (Intelligence/AI, Space, Connectivity). The only blemish was a miss on Starlink subscriber adds, offset by better pricing. Guidance calls for revenue of $33B to $37B by Q1 FY27. Management says it expects 2 to 3 GW of compute by year-end 2026 and plans to add 10 GW in 2027, well above prior expectations, and told JPMorgan it is not considering raising equity.
Price targets:
- JPMorgan: $500 from $240 (Overweight). Biggest move. Says the forward driver is superintelligence, not the segment beats.
- Cantor Fitzgerald: $345 from $246 (Overweight). Sees $500B to $1T in year-end 2027 ARR, self-funded compute expansion, and chip supply constraints giving SpaceX pricing power.
- Barclays: $300 from $254 (Overweight). Model update on the beat.
- Morgan Stanley: $300 reiterated (Overweight). Says the story is only now getting interesting.
- Citi: $240 from $200 (Buy). Also opened a 90-day upside catalyst watch, pointing to Q4 beat-and-raise continuation and Starship Flight 15 as a major reusability catalyst.
- UBS: $230 from $210 (Buy). New compute deals ramping in Q4, Starship catch milestones, Grok improvements.
- TD Cowen: $224 from $200 (Buy). Estimates up on the beat.
- Susquehanna: $176 from $173 (Neutral). The lone holdout. Flags execution risk on the compute buildout and dependence on Starship commercialization.
