That’s a Wrap!

Avatar photo Stephen Guilfoyle on August 14, 2026

The major equity indices closed modestly lower on Friday, one day after the S&P 500 notched a fresh record high close. The S&P 500 gave up 0.1% on the session while the Nasdaq Composite lost 0.2%. Six of the 11 S&P sector SPDR ETFs finished higher, led by Energy ($XLE). Healthcare ($XLV) was the weakest of these funds.

Treasury yields shifted higher as bond traders made sales. The U.S. 10-year note paid 4.69% (+4 BPS) by day’s end while the two-year note paid 4.17% (+2 BPS). Stocks started out the day on strength after July U.S. retail sales fell 0.6% month-over-month to $763.6 billion. This was considerably softer than expected and marked the largest one months drop for the series in more than a year.

Sandisk ($SNDK) was the star of the S&P 500, gaining 7.4% on continued strength one day after the firm’s investor day, where management outlined strong long-term growth and margin targets for the business. Applied Materials ($AMAT) at -5.1% for the day was a laggard, but Broadcom ($AVGO) led the way lower at -5.9%. 

OK, gang. It’s Friday night. I need a break. I bet you do, too. With a little luck and the blessings of a merciful God, Dougie should be back at the helm on Monday. May all of you have a safe and enjoyable weekend. Sarge out. 

Positions: Long SNDK equity. 

We Have a Runner!

Avatar photo Stephen Guilfoyle on August 14, 2026

Sandisk ($SNDK) is running wild in response to the firm’s investor day on Thursday.

While unhappy that we sold most of our long position here at the Sarge-folio, we can take solace in the fact that at least we did not sell it all and that we did add an odd lot to the odd lot that we had left going into the event. Do we even have a round lot in inventory? Rather not talk about it.

For a stock that we had traded masterfully through the spring, we sure have managed to turn a grand slam into a triple. Still, we could have missed the memory/storage trade of 2026 and we did not. That said, we have a broken pattern.

Readers will see that our head-and-shoulders pattern has gone the way of the dinosaur, the blacksmith and the NYSE floor trader. The shares took back their 21-day SMA on Thursday and are trying to take back their 50-day SMA this morning. Should this happen, as the swing crowd is already on board, the pros will have no choice but to increase long side exposure further. That blue line is the pivot. Both relative strength and the daily MACD are wearing their rally cpas as well. Take that blur line and a target price of $2,155 is very realistic. 

Positions: Long SNDK equity. 

That’s a Wrap

Avatar photo Stephen Guilfoyle on August 13, 2026

Another day, another record? Sort of.

The S&P 500 managed to set a new all-time intraday record high as well as an all-time record closing high. Why? Inflation, or the lack thereof.

For the month of July, headline PPI printed at +0.0% month over month versus the +0.2% consensus and at +4.7% year over year versus expectations for a +4.9% print. At the core (ex. food and energy), PPI hit the tape at +0.2% month over month versus +0.3% consensus and at +4.2% year over year, even with consensus about down from +4.7% in June.

As it now becomes all but impossible for the Fed to raise short-term rates any time soon, at least not backed by logic, the yield paid by the U.S. two-year Treasury note contracted by 5 BPS to 4.15%, and the yield on the U.S. 10-year note dropped 4 BPS to 4.65%. This pushed equities higher.

The benchmark S&P 500 closed +0.6%, as the Nasdaq Composite gained +0.8%. Eight of the 11 S&P sector SPDR ETFs closed in the green, led by Communication Services ($XLC). Materials ($XLB) led the losers.

Workday ($WDAY) led the S&P 500 higher on takeover rumors. It was the memory trade that ruled the day, though, as SanDisk ($SNDK), Micron ($MU) and Western Digital ($WDC) all had nice days. Cisco Systems ($CSCO) took a beating after posting disappointing guidance along with what looked, otherwise, to be a pretty decent earnings report. 

Have a great evening, gang. Dougie will be out again tomorrow and, God willing, I will be back to work through the day with you all. Now, go get some grub and maybe work out a little. Sarge out. 

Positions: Long SNDK, MU equity.