Mondelez Up, Intel Down: Upside, Downside Movers in the Morning

Avatar photo Doug Kass on October 30, 2026

Upside

– $REGN +6.9% (Q3 profit and revenue materially topped expectations)

– $BTSG +6.4% (Q3 beat and full-year revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance raised)

– $MDLZ +6.4% (profit beat, volume-led growth and upbeat margin and 2027 commentary)

– $RIVN +6.4% (Q3 beat and 2026 delivery outlook raised)

– $AZN +5.9% (Q3 revenue and profit beat on strong oncology growth; FY guidance reaffirmed)

– $MICC +5.4% (Q3 update showed double-digit growth at core brands and more than 30% Yasso growth)

– $GILD +5.1% (Q3 beat and product-sales outlook raised on strong HIV growth)

– $CL +5.0% (Q3 beat, volume and gross margin improved and FY profit guidance was raised)

– $TAK +4.4% (first-half profit beat and FY outlook upgraded, primarily reflecting FX benefits)

– $FDXF +3.9% (inaugural standalone results beat and adjusted margin outlook was raised)

– $ICE +3.7% (extends post-earnings gains after record Q3 results and a higher recurring-revenue outlook)

– $SNY +3.6% (Q3 delivered double-digit sales and profit growth and FY guidance was raised)

– $GD +3.4% (Q3 beat with broad segment growth and robust bookings)

– $DXCM +3.0% (Q3 beat with margin expansion and higher FY revenue and profitability guidance)

– $EXC +2.5% (Q3 beat and FY guidance narrowed while long-term EPS growth was affirmed near the top of its range)

Downside

– $ATEC -32% (Q3 missed as weaker biologics revenue drove cuts to the FY revenue, EBITDA and free-cash-flow outlooks)

– $INTC -25% (Q4 revenue, profit and gross-margin guidance fell well short as the PC slowdown is expected to persist into 2027)

– $RDDT -22% (strong headline growth was overshadowed by a 2% decline in US daily active users)

– $TWLO -19% (Q3 beat and FY outlook rose, but Q4 organic growth is set to slow sharply and operating-profit guidance disappointed)

– $RBLX -16% (Q4 bookings forecast calls for a 10% to 15% year-over-year decline)

– $ILMN -13% (revenue missed and slowing instrument growth outweighed a guidance raise partly helped by tariff refunds)

– $DELL -12%, HPQ -10%, P -7.8%, HPE -7.6% (hardware and storage names tumble as the PC warning and heavy AI spending trigger broad tech de-risking)

– $SYK -10% (Q3 sales and profit missed and the FY outlook was cut amid softer hip and knee demand)

– $SNDK -9.4% (strong quarter and guidance trigger a high-expectations sell-the-news reaction as consumer revenue fell sharply)

– $CCJ -8.7% (Q3 results fell year over year as a longer Key Lake outage raised costs and Westinghouse equity earnings declined)

– $CRDO -8.7%, ARM -9.5%, AMD -9.8%, ASX -8.7%, SMTC -9.5%, NVDA -2.7% (semiconductors fall after the weak chip outlook sparks a global technology rout)

– $COHR -8.8%, BE -9.0%, NBIS -8.3%, GLW -7.1% (AI-infrastructure names unwind as negative free cash flow renews concerns over capex returns)

– NWG -8.1% (quarterly profit fell, impairment losses nearly doubled and the next buyback decision was deferred)

– WDC -8.1%, STX -7.2% (storage names fall alongside the memory selloff and broader AI-hardware de-risking)

– AMZN -7.4% (Q3 sales and profit missed, free cash flow turned deeply negative and the holiday-quarter sales outlook was cautious)

– PINS -7.3% (Q3 revenue missed guidance and the Q4 outlook implies further growth deceleration)

Awooh!

Avatar photo Doug Kass on October 30, 2026

* I mean baa(d) – Baa? Baa(d)

What full lips you have
They’re sure to lure someone bad
So until you get to Grandma’s place
I think you ought to walk with me and be safe

I’m gonna’ keep my sheep suit on
Until I’m sure that you’ve been shown
That I can be trusted, walking with you alone
Awooh

Little Red Riding Hood
You sure are lookin’ good
You’re everything that a big, bad wolf could want
Awooh! I mean baa
Baa? Baa

–  Sam the Sham and the Pharaohs, Little Red Riding Hood 

Wolf Street howls about “tech as in drek.”

Tech Makes a Mess as Wrinkles Start to Show. Markets Are Edgy Now, Aren’t They? | Wolf Street

As noted by Wolf Street we have seen unprecedented and large percentage and dollar drops in the world’s biggest technology stocks that have highlighted the last 48 hours of trading:

* Alphabet ($GOOGL)

* Amazon ($AMZN)

* ServiceNow ($NOW)

* Intel ($INTC)

* Fortinet ($FTNT)

* Reddit ($RDDT)

The consensus has been unabashedly optimistic going into this week’s technology earnings releases:

 1. From the head cheerleader, Fundstrat’s Tom Lee, whose changing narratives have incorrectly but confidently called for an imminent and massive stock market rally:

2. “Group stink” and simplistic first-level thinking from another Halftime panelist shrouded in hubris:

To me, the most audacious part of all this is that there will be no admission of a massive investment mistake nor will there be pushback from the shows’ moderators. 

Position: None

Thursday’s Schedule: GDP and Amazon Headline Another Busy Day

Avatar photo NeilSethi on October 29, 2026

US economic data includes the advance estimate of Q3 GDP, which will incorporate September personal income and spending with PCE prices that will also be separately reported. We’ll also get weekly unemployment claims.

The Fed’s blackout period extends until midnight, with Fed speakers resuming Friday.

The non-Bill (>1yr in maturity) US Treasury auction is $44bn of 7-year notes.

61 S&P 500 components report, 14 of them with market caps over $100bn:61 S&P 500 components report, 14 of them with market caps over $100bn:

Before the open: Eli Lilly ($LLY), Mastercard ($MA), Merck ($MRK), Caterpillar ($CAT), Linde ($LIN), Bristol Myers Squibb ($BMY), Altria ($MO), Trane Technologies ($TT), Intercontinental Exchange ($ICE), Quanta Services ($PWR), Howmet Aerospace ($HWM), CRH ($CRH), Xcel Energy ($XEL), L3Harris ($LHX), Carrier ($CARR), Ameriprise ($AMP), D.R. Horton ($DHI), Ares Management ($ARES), WEC Energy ($WEC), Vulcan Materials ($VMC), Hershey ($HSY), Cognizant ($CTSH), WTW ($WTW), West Pharmaceutical ($WST), Incyte ($INCY), T. Rowe Price ($TROW), Bunge ($BG), Kimco Realty ($KIM), Avery Dennison ($AVY), Textron ($TXT), Baxter ($BAX), Huntington Ingalls ($HII), A.O. Smith ($AOS) and Norwegian Cruise Line ($NCLH)

After the close: Amazon ($AMZN), Intel ($INTC), Gilead ($GILD), SanDisk ($SNDK), Stryker ($SYK), Starbucks ($SBUX), Mondelez ($MDLZ), Republic Services ($RSG), Arthur J. Gallagher ($AJG), Digital Realty ($DLR), Monolithic Power ($MPWR), Coinbase ($COIN), Illumina ($ILMN), Twilio ($TWLO), ResMed ($RMD), Ingersoll Rand ($IR), Reddit ($RDDT), Veralto ($VLTO), Edison International ($EIX), First Solar ($FSLR), Alliant Energy ($LNT), Weyerhaeuser ($WY), GoDaddy ($GDDY), DaVita ($DVA) and Erie Indemnity ($ERIE)

Time not announced: Monster Beverage ($MNST) and AES ($AES)

Outside the US, Shell ($SHEL), TotalEnergies ($TTE) and Volkswagen ($VWAGY) report.

Ex-US highlights include a policy decision from the ECB, UK September net consumer credit and M4, Japan October consumer confidence index, Italy September unemployment rate, October consumer confidence index, economic sentiment and manufacturing confidence, Eurozone October economic confidence and Sweden Q3 GDP indicator.

From Christophe Barraud’s international Week Ahead rundown:

A Fair Criticism Deserves a Response

Avatar photo Doug Kass on October 28, 2026

Subscriber jryan (below) delivered some reasonable comments and criticism yesterday in the Comments Section. 

Basically he said he is “getting sick of reading about cannabis and Fin TV commentary” — and he wants more (long) stock suggestions, etc.  

I wanted to respond in the first column of the day. 

* Few longs have represented value to me as I have been unduly negative for a lengthy period of time. I take ownership of that.

* The stocks that I have owned have recently been Staples ($KO, $PEP, $PG and $KMB), selected cannabis names and some others. The consumer nondurable stocks have been fine recently (and I have taken profits in them). We shall see about cannabis — a speculative sector and my focus has been intermediate-term based on the improved likelihood of rescheduling and other factors clearly delineated in my Diary.

*As to the CNBC constructive criticism. I point these out not only as an advocate of the retail viewer that should see timestamps (panelists taking ownership) and observe better company interviews, but so they can evaluate the merits and process of the panelists’ recommendations and become better-informed investors through more hard-hitting interviews (that serve more than as a marketing tool of companies). 

* But the criticism directed to Fin TV also is intended to highlight investment recommendations from panelists and guests that I strongly disagree with. Choosing stocks to avoid (in that FIN TV criticism) can be as valuable or even more valuable than choosing stocks to buy. Consider my negative comments towards $BA, $BABA, $META, $UBER, $NFLX, $RDDT, $TTAN, $DIS, $CLF, $MRNA and $UNH (a few years back) etc. that were mostly confidently and strenuously recommended on CNBC. 

* My “More Tales From Nvidia” series is intended to deliver the idea that the functionality, productivity and ROIC on the enormous capital spend may disappoint the many and multitude of optimists on AI. I have felt that my contrarian and non herd-like observations were valuable in a backdrop of near-universal bullishness (that is readily and frequently available from the buy/sell sides, panelists and guests). My view was that dwelling on “More Tales” had statistical value in that over 40% of the S&P is comprised of large-cap tech.   

* As to specific AI beneficiaries, I have admitted (often) of missing $MSFT and $GOOGL. The valuation on $AAPL seems foolish to me — the shares have prospered and I have been wrong.  But the others ($META, $AMZN and even $NVDA) have not set the world on fire this year. As to memory and chip stocks, they have been “the world’s fair” up until the summer but awful since late June. Not only do I think these companies are “overearning,” but the volatility is not for me and not consistent and doesn’t conform with my appetite for risk. 

*  The financial stocks were quite strong until early summer. I repeatedly cautioned not to embrace banks, brokers and private equity shares (I successfully shorted $BX, $KKR and $APOL since then). Viewed by panelists as perhaps the best “value play,” financials have been dismal over the last four months.  We avoided this decline (in $C, $JPM, $BAC, $GS, $MS et al).

* The stocks that I have been short in the AI sphere have been terrific (to the downside) — $ORCL and $CRWV. (Avoiding them as longs has also been a valuable contribution.) My recent foray into shorting NVDA was profitable also. 

* As to my preoccupation with CNBC I suggest taking the number of words written about FIN TV and divide it by the number of words written on other subjects daily. You will find my criticism is dwarfed by my other columns. In the scheme of things my criticism is de minimis. 

* Finally, to jryan I say there are many other contributors that actively recommend longs and provide a valuable service.

All this said I am imperfect.

I take ownership of my mistakes.

The transparency of my Diary exposes my blemishes. 

I believe jryan has some good points and I will purposefully look for more long ideas in the future. 

I truly appreciate jryan’s comments and I have tried to respond to his concerns:

jryan

Just a thought. There used to be a lot of different investment ideas, stock suggestions etc., but all it seems to be now is cannabis and CNBC commentary, which I don’t watch anyway. Kind of getting sick of it, especially the cannabis info, is it ever going to pay off? Likely, but it will be quite a while from today, if ever. But at least it’s easier to scroll through the commentary and use less time.

Position: Long KO (VS), PG (VS), KMB (VS), MSOS common (VL) and calls (VS), VRNO (VS), GLAS (S), GTBIF (S), TRLV (VS), CURLF (VS); Short AAPL (S)

My Comment of the Day

Avatar photo Doug Kass on October 23, 2026


Dougie Kass

3m ago

The tide is going out and now you understand my resentment towards Fin TV.

Look at their favorite stocks – $BABA $UBER $NFLX $SHAK $GEV $CAT Paramount, $BA, $RDDT  the banks/brokers/private equity et al

They are swimming naked.

Memo to retail investors – they will not take ownership of their mistakes, the will continue to smile, they will be confident in view, they will take your assets. 

They will cost you money. 

Turn off your TVs.

Positions: None 

My Comment of the Day (Part Trois)

Avatar photo Doug Kass on October 22, 2026


Dougie Kass

39m ago

I am no longer dwelling on the BS from panelists on the shows.

But as I have warned when the tide goes out you will realize the absence of analytical rigor and process.

The panelists, you will also realize, will not revisit their losers.

They will never timestamp because viewers would realize the “jig is up.”

Panelists want to seem/look smart – they want to polish their images as they are asset gatherers or are selling a service.

But look at the shares of  homebuilders, $RDDT, $SHAK, $BABA, $TTAN, $GEV, $UBER, $NFLX and the many others that were confidently recommended by the panelists of floor traders, veterans of Long Island Boiler Room brokerages, phony technical analysts (who don’t even know what a fractal is or who Mandlebrot was!).

I have highlighted their BS as an advocate of the retail viewer who all generally think being a regular panelist on CNBC means alot.

It means virtually nothing.   

Positions: None.