September Monthly Roundup: 5 Focus Areas as Portfolio Keeps Its YTD Lead
We raised cash early, put some back to work late in the month, locked in gains on Meta and kicked off our quarterly EPS All-Stars reconstitution.
Way Up at the Top of This Wobbly Market Is One, Huge AI Trade
Let’s look at the concentration risks investors shouldn’t be ignoring.
(Early) Things I Did Today
Here are today’s early things:
* I am back shorting the indexes: $SPY $770.89 and $QQQ $752.24
* I added to $MSOS $4.45
* I initiated a short in $NVDA $235.91.
Positions: Long MSOS common VL calls S; Short NVDA VS SPY S QQQ S
Oil Flows Improve, for Now: 8 Key Items Shaping the Stock Market Monday
Schneider Electric and other M&A deals, September Service PMI inflation data and other headlines moving the market this morning.
First Time, Long Time
New short position, Nvidia ($NVDA) (premarket at $235.01).
More later this week.
Position: Short NVDA S
The Week Ahead: Do We Finally Get the Broadening?
Yields remain in the driver’s seat, with bond shorts at extremes and a light week on the calendar.
Bad News Was Good News Friday — for Stocks, Not Bonds
Payrolls missed every estimate, raising bets for an October FOMC hold, and the Nasdaq-100 powered to a record high. But Treasury yields reversed an early drop.
Why Fast AI Chips Still Have to Wait
Storage, networking and optical infrastructure may be less glamorous in the world of AI, but these 8 names keep the traffic moving.
More Tales From Nvidia: In the Stock Market It Is AI All the Time… and More (Issue #257!)
During Q3 2026 four equities (stimulated by perceived AI growth opportunities) — $MSFT, $NVDA, $AAPL and $META — added about 300 points to the gain in the S&P index, representing more than 200% of the index’s total gain. The other 496 stocks subtracted approximately 150 points:
Back to AI “concentration” credit risks — specifically that private equity (we remain short $BX, $APO, $OWL and $KKR) is piling into the same AI data center bet:
Carlyle warns private credit is piling into the same AI data center bet
More on depreciation schedules and creative accounting:
Finally, continued AI skepticism from “Moon Alice” — Roger McNamee:
and…
Position: Short BX (VS), KKR (VS), APO (VS), OWL (VS)
Despite Warnings, Tomorrow Won’t Bring the Market Bottom
An updated look at S&P 500 support levels as we stick to the sidelines.