Here were yesterday’s things:
* New short position — Bloom Energy ($BE) at $265.39
* New option position — Bought Nvidia ($NVDA) puts
* Reshorted $SPY at $748.88 and $QQQ at $722.58
* Shorted $GRNY at $27.81
* Shorted $JOET at $45.97
* Reshorted Morgan Stanley ($MS) at $223.61
* Supersized long $MSOS at $4.46
Position: Long MSOS (VL), NVDA puts; Short SPY (VS), QQQ (VS), MS (S), GRNY (M), JOET (S), BE (S)
Nvidia ($NVDA) is trading at $202.10. I am buying monthly puts for August.
Read “More Tales” for my rationale.
Note: The entire Halftime crew of panelists are long this name, with SLINK buying for the first time today.
Position: Long NVDA puts
Shares in the Korean semiconductor firm are set to list on Friday and raise a record amount for a company based outside of the U.S.
* S&P EPS growth, that is….
The business media has been ecstatic about strong, aggregate S&P EPS growth – serving as the foundation of the bullish argument.
But, take out Micron ($MU) and Nvidia’s ($NVDA) earnings, all the non recurring gains (in the hyperscalers) from unrealized investment gains coupled with the (one time) energy sector contributions (from much higher oil prices – which will likely become more difficult two quarters out) – and things look much different and far less robust.
This is a market in transition — and how these themes unfold will determine what happens next.
* And fading it…
I don’t own and am currently short (and have been recently short C, JPM, GS, MS, UBER, NFLX, homebuilders, etc.) some of the most consensus sectors.
I am long some of the most non-consensus sectors.
Consensus Longs:
* Memory: SanDisk ($SNDK), Micron ($MU), Intel ($INTC), AMD ($AMD), Applied Materials ($AMAT) (“it’s different this time”)
* Value Tech: Adobe ($ADBE), Oracle ($ORCL), ServiceNow ($NOW) and Nvidia ($NVDA)
* Tech With Biggest Moat: Apple ($AAPL)
* Value Industrial: Caterpillar ($CAT)
* Best Overall Value: Homebuilders
* Streaming: Netflix ($NFLX)
* Autonomous: Uber ($UBER)
* Entertainment: Disney ($DIS)
* Financials: JPMorgan ($JPM), Citigroup ($C), Goldman Sachs ($GS), Morgan Stanley ($MS)
* Frontier Exposure “For The Long Haul”: SpaceX ($SPCX)
Non-Consensus Longs:
* Cannabis: $MSOS, $VRNOD, $TRLV, $GTBIF, $GLAS
* Private Equity: Apollo ($APO), Blackstone ($BX), KKR ($KKR)
* Consumer Staples: Kimberly-Clark ($KMB), PepsiCo ($PEP), Procter & Gamble ($PG)
Positions:
Long MSOS (L), VRNOD (S), TRLV (S), GTIBF (S), GLAS (S), APO (S), BX (S), KKR (S), KMB (S), PEP (S), PG (S)
Short SPCX (VS), SNDK (VS), MU (VS), INTC (VS), AMAT (VS), AMD (VS), CAT (VS)
The world’s largest chipmaker seemed to trigger a surprising stock selloff.
Today we will have delivered three More Tales From Nvidia (representing 213 issues since inception two years ago).
FWIW since Nvidia ($NVDA) hit $130 in mid-2024, coincident with More Tales From Nvidia, it has been the worst stock to own in the AI space.
The shares retraced to $100 twice. It is all of $190 and change now. And that is with, after it hit $130, the U.S. government throwing its entire might behind AI from a policy perspective AND all the crazy circular financing and bought revenue. And still only the move to less than $200.
At the same time, almost everything else on the supply side of the space is up 5x or 10x.
Yup, NVDA been the worst stock to own on the supply side by far.
I have just gotten started… as there are More Tales to come!
Position: None
Burry has been way off at times, but not always. How should investors interpret his latest call?
Why I’m sticking to plan on memory stocks; also, let’s brace for the week ahead, check the markets’ charts, and interpret those jobs numbers.
