This Holding Comes Under Pressure Following Acquisition Report
We can see several reasons for a deal, but the real question is how much is Marvell willing to pay up?
A Fair Criticism Deserves a Response
Subscriber jryan (below) delivered some reasonable comments and criticism yesterday in the Comments Section.
Basically he said he is “getting sick of reading about cannabis and Fin TV commentary” — and he wants more (long) stock suggestions, etc.
I wanted to respond in the first column of the day.
* Few longs have represented value to me as I have been unduly negative for a lengthy period of time. I take ownership of that.
* The stocks that I have owned have recently been Staples ($KO, $PEP, $PG and $KMB), selected cannabis names and some others. The consumer nondurable stocks have been fine recently (and I have taken profits in them). We shall see about cannabis — a speculative sector and my focus has been intermediate-term based on the improved likelihood of rescheduling and other factors clearly delineated in my Diary.
*As to the CNBC constructive criticism. I point these out not only as an advocate of the retail viewer that should see timestamps (panelists taking ownership) and observe better company interviews, but so they can evaluate the merits and process of the panelists’ recommendations and become better-informed investors through more hard-hitting interviews (that serve more than as a marketing tool of companies).
* But the criticism directed to Fin TV also is intended to highlight investment recommendations from panelists and guests that I strongly disagree with. Choosing stocks to avoid (in that FIN TV criticism) can be as valuable or even more valuable than choosing stocks to buy. Consider my negative comments towards $BA, $BABA, $META, $UBER, $NFLX, $RDDT, $TTAN, $DIS, $CLF, $MRNA and $UNH (a few years back) etc. that were mostly confidently and strenuously recommended on CNBC.
* My “More Tales From Nvidia” series is intended to deliver the idea that the functionality, productivity and ROIC on the enormous capital spend may disappoint the many and multitude of optimists on AI. I have felt that my contrarian and non herd-like observations were valuable in a backdrop of near-universal bullishness (that is readily and frequently available from the buy/sell sides, panelists and guests). My view was that dwelling on “More Tales” had statistical value in that over 40% of the S&P is comprised of large-cap tech.
* As to specific AI beneficiaries, I have admitted (often) of missing $MSFT and $GOOGL. The valuation on $AAPL seems foolish to me — the shares have prospered and I have been wrong. But the others ($META, $AMZN and even $NVDA) have not set the world on fire this year. As to memory and chip stocks, they have been “the world’s fair” up until the summer but awful since late June. Not only do I think these companies are “overearning,” but the volatility is not for me and not consistent and doesn’t conform with my appetite for risk.
* The financial stocks were quite strong until early summer. I repeatedly cautioned not to embrace banks, brokers and private equity shares (I successfully shorted $BX, $KKR and $APOL since then). Viewed by panelists as perhaps the best “value play,” financials have been dismal over the last four months. We avoided this decline (in $C, $JPM, $BAC, $GS, $MS et al).
* The stocks that I have been short in the AI sphere have been terrific (to the downside) — $ORCL and $CRWV. (Avoiding them as longs has also been a valuable contribution.) My recent foray into shorting NVDA was profitable also.
* As to my preoccupation with CNBC I suggest taking the number of words written about FIN TV and divide it by the number of words written on other subjects daily. You will find my criticism is dwarfed by my other columns. In the scheme of things my criticism is de minimis.
* Finally, to jryan I say there are many other contributors that actively recommend longs and provide a valuable service.
All this said I am imperfect.
I take ownership of my mistakes.
The transparency of my Diary exposes my blemishes.
I believe jryan has some good points and I will purposefully look for more long ideas in the future.
I truly appreciate jryan’s comments and I have tried to respond to his concerns:
jryan
Just a thought. There used to be a lot of different investment ideas, stock suggestions etc., but all it seems to be now is cannabis and CNBC commentary, which I don’t watch anyway. Kind of getting sick of it, especially the cannabis info, is it ever going to pay off? Likely, but it will be quite a while from today, if ever. But at least it’s easier to scroll through the commentary and use less time.
Position: Long KO (VS), PG (VS), KMB (VS), MSOS common (VL) and calls (VS), VRNO (VS), GLAS (S), GTBIF (S), TRLV (VS), CURLF (VS); Short AAPL (S)
A Tech Led Rebound to Kick Off the Week
Let’s dig in following an up day on Wall Street to see what’s happened and what to expect.
Netflix Is Still Too Low to Short and Too High to Buy
“Generalissimo Francisco Franco is still dead.”
– Chevy Chase, Saturday Night Live
SNL Weekend Update: Generalissimo Francisco Franco
Despite protestations from most of the panelists and guests on the Shows… I have said/written to avoid Netflix ($NFLX) at over $100 (in April 2026), at $85 (in June 2026) and again last week at over $70.
And I will say it again, today — at $63.
I still would not bottom fish in Netflix’s shares.
From last week:
My View on Netflix
Repeating for emphasis, I would not bottom fish in Netflix (NFLX).
I expect in line-to-better 2Q2026 results but a possible lower forward guidance as margins are pressured.
From last month:
Netflix Is Too Low to Short and Too High to Buy
I would continue to avoid buying (and “bottom fishing”) in Netflix (NFLX) for the reasons I have previously mentioned:
* Netflix has nearly saturated the domestic market (as well as many other developed countries). These markets are significantly more profitable than the non developed arena.
* Future Netflix sales/profit growth will come from developing country markets that provide substantially less revenue (and income) per subscriber.
* Netflix’s original content programming has been unspectacular over the last 12 months (or more) — and existing content has suffered.
In the past I have been short NFLX, but it is no longer priced as an attractive short.
Position: None
BY Doug Kass · Sep 22, 2026, 1:50 PM EDT
Position: None
BY Doug Kass · Oct 20, 2026, 4:09 PM EDT
Position: None
Tracking 49 Signals Across 11 Portfolio Investment Themes
Let’s scan through the headlines for the stories of the week that speak to our Pro Portfolio holdings.
My Comment of the Day
Dougie Kass
3m ago
The tide is going out and now you understand my resentment towards Fin TV.
Look at their favorite stocks – $BABA $UBER $NFLX $SHAK $GEV $CAT Paramount, $BA, $RDDT the banks/brokers/private equity et al
They are swimming naked.
Memo to retail investors – they will not take ownership of their mistakes, the will continue to smile, they will be confident in view, they will take your assets.
They will cost you money.
Turn off your TVs.
Positions: None
My Comment of the Day (Part Trois)
Dougie Kass
39m ago
I am no longer dwelling on the BS from panelists on the shows.
But as I have warned when the tide goes out you will realize the absence of analytical rigor and process.
The panelists, you will also realize, will not revisit their losers.
They will never timestamp because viewers would realize the “jig is up.”
Panelists want to seem/look smart – they want to polish their images as they are asset gatherers or are selling a service.
But look at the shares of homebuilders, $RDDT, $SHAK, $BABA, $TTAN, $GEV, $UBER, $NFLX and the many others that were confidently recommended by the panelists of floor traders, veterans of Long Island Boiler Room brokerages, phony technical analysts (who don’t even know what a fractal is or who Mandlebrot was!).
I have highlighted their BS as an advocate of the retail viewer who all generally think being a regular panelist on CNBC means alot.
It means virtually nothing.
Positions: None.
SpaceX Lights a Fire Under Tech
Blowout SpaceX results lifted a swath of AI names, sending the Nasdaq up over 1%.
Netflix Down, SpaceX Up: Upside/Downside Movers in the A.M.
Upside
– $SMCI +12% (preliminary fiscal Q1 revenue outlook was raised well above expectations, with gross-margin upside)
– $SPCX +8.2% (Q3 revenue and profit crushed expectations, marking its first quarterly profit since the IPO, while special committees evaluate a potential TSLA merger)
– $CRDO +7.2%, $VRT +6.7%, $DELL +6.9%, $LITE +5.6%, $HPE +5.0%, $COHR +4.6% (AI-infrastructure suppliers rise as the SMCI outlook and SPCX AI-compute results reinforce data-center demand)
– $WDC +4.0%, $SKHY +3.7%, $SNDK +3.7%, $STX +3.6%, $MU +3.1% (memory and storage names gain on the stronger AI-infrastructure demand read-through)
– $APLD +4.0% (Texas AI data-center agreement and bullish analyst action)
– $INTC +2.3%, AMD +2.1%, $NVDA +2.0% (chip stocks rise as strong AI-compute and server demand updates lift the broader complex)
– $TSLA +1.4% (special committee formed with SPCX to evaluate a potential merger ahead of earnings)
Downside
– $TKNO -30% ($40M primary offering priced at $5 per share, a steep discount to the prior close)
– $NFLX -7.0% (Q3 profit beat, but the Q4 sales outlook missed and the 2026 advertising-revenue forecast was cut to $2.7B from $3B)
– $ISRG -6.7% (Q3 beat, but U.S. procedure growth slowed, instrument pricing reductions were outlined and the high end of the procedure-growth outlook was cut)
– $T -5.6% (Q3 beat and FY EPS guidance was raised, but postpaid phone additions missed expectations amid satellite-competition concerns)
– $DHR -3.6% (Q3 beat and FY EPS guidance was raised, but the Q4 core-growth outlook remained modest with a respiratory-revenue headwind)
– $TMO -3.0% (sell-the-news reaction after a Q3 beat and raised FY guidance)
– $ACN -1.5% (Baird downgrades to Neutral from Outperform on valuation and slower organic growth)
Netflix Lowers Guidance and I Call More B.S. in the Business Media
Fan fave Netflix ($NFLX) materially reduced forward guidance after the close of trading — and its shares are trading -$4 (or -6%) in premarket trading.
Here is the company’s release: FINAL-Q3-26-Shareholder-Letter.pdf
Netflix vs. You Tube
From my Diary yesterday afternoon and last night on Netflix:
My View on Netflix
Repeating for emphasis, I would not bottom fish in Netflix (NFLX).
I expect in line-to-better 2Q2026 results but a possible lower forward guidance as margins are pressured.
From last month:
Netflix Is Too Low to Short and Too High to Buy
I would continue to avoid buying (and “bottom fishing”) in Netflix (NFLX) for the reasons I have previously mentioned:
* Netflix has nearly saturated the domestic market (as well as many other developed countries). These markets are significantly more profitable than the non developed arena.
* Future Netflix sales/profit growth will come from developing country markets that provide substantially less revenue (and income) per subscriber.
* Netflix’s original content programming has been unspectacular over the last 12 months (or more) — and existing content has suffered.
In the past I have been short NFLX, but it is no longer priced as an attractive short.
Position: None
BY Doug Kass · Sep 22, 2026, 1:50 PM EDT
Position: None
BY Doug Kass · Oct 20, 2026, 4:09 PM EDT
Post Script:
Netflix, according to AI, was among the most recommended equities of the panelists on the “Show:” But viewers, in light of no timestamping or memorializing of recommendations, probably have no clue.
Though, as seen by my tweet above, I have stopped using X as a forum for my constructive criticism, I have a clue. Here is a recent recommendation of Netflix by one of the more particularly smug panelists seen on the Noon Show:
Trade Tracker: Steve Weiss buys more Netflix
We will likely never hear the name (Netflix) again from this particular panelist — or any of the others. As night follows day none of the panelists have modelled Netflix, spoken to management (and its competitors) or have performed any serious analysis.
Images and franchises are polished by panelists showing successful investment recommendations and not their conspicuous and frequent investment boners.
Instead the shows and panelists will likely all discuss SpaceX ($SPCX) today (whose shares are up by 6% after their EPS release)..
Position: None