Weekly Roundup: The AI Trade Got Smacked. We’re Following the Data, Not the Fear
We put capital to work in two holdings, exited another and bumped up our price target for a long-time position.
We put capital to work in two holdings, exited another and bumped up our price target for a long-time position.
The chip-equipment bellwether is sending an important signal for AI and the market. Just make sure you’re in the right spots.
– $PROF +19% (preliminary Q3 revenue was about 45%-47% above consensus, with gross margin expected above 70%)
– $HAE +14% (no fresh company catalyst confirmed; unusually large move on light premarket volume)
– $WOLF +13% (received a conditional commitment for up to $1.5B of 30-year U.S. defense financing, partly offset by warrants for up to 7.5% of diluted equity)
– $EFX +4.5% (no fresh company catalyst confirmed; unusually large premarket move)
– $APA +3.1%, OXY +2.5%, DVN +2.4% (oil producers rise as WTI and Brent jump roughly 4.5%)
– $PLTR +2.3% (extends AI-software momentum despite weaker index futures)
– $PEP +1.6% (Q3 revenue and profit beat expectations; a better-than-feared quarter offsets a cut to the FY earnings-growth outlook)
– $ARGX -15% (Phase 3 UNITY study in Sjögren’s disease was stopped for futility, overshadowing positive Phase 2 celiac-disease data)
– $GLW -3.3% (no fresh company catalyst confirmed; unusually large premarket move)
– $EQIX -3.0% (rate-sensitive data-center REIT falls as the 10-year Treasury yield climbs to roughly 5.33%)
– $NXPI -3.1%, $AMAT -2.5%, $LRCX -2.9%, $HPE -2.0% (semiconductor and hardware names weaken as Treasury yields rise and global technology shares sell off)
– $SHW -2.7% (crude-oil surge raises petrochemical feedstock and input-cost concerns)
– $LPCN +40% (Health Canada approves TLANDO for testosterone replacement therapy)
– $APUS +9.4% (extends a high-volume rally tied to the BlockAssure agreement to build and operate the AssureChain insurance network)
– $PENG +4.3% (Q4 beat and FY27 sales and EPS outlook topped prior guidance and Street expectations on accelerating AI-infrastructure demand)
– CNQ +1.6%, APA +1.2%, OXY +1.0%, COP +1.0% (oil producers rise as crude climbs back above $100 a barrel)
– $CRBU -42% (launches a strategic-alternatives review, discontinues two allogeneic CAR-T programs and plans substantial workforce reductions)
– $BULL -30% (bipartisan House panel report says structural China ties pose national-security and US-user-data risks)
– $STM -5.4%, $TER -3.0%, $ASML -3.0%, $AMAT -2.7%, $LRCX -3.0%, $MU -2.8% (chip stocks fall in the risk-off technology tape as oil-driven inflation concerns pressure rate-sensitive growth shares)
– $BMNR -5.0%, $CRCL -4.0%, $MSTR -3.8%, $COIN -3.1%, $HOOD -3.0% (crypto-linked stocks fall as digital-asset prices weaken)
– $AAOI -4.8%, $CIEN -3.8%, $MTSI -3.0%, $COHR -3.2%, $GLW -3.3% (AI-networking and optical winners pull back after sharp recent rallies as technology exposure is reduced)
– $DB -4.7%, $SAN -4.2%, $HSBC -3.9%, $NWG -3.5%, $BCS -3.3% (European-bank ADRs fall as oil-driven inflation and sovereign-bond stress deepen fiscal concerns, with UK lenders also facing budget-tax fears)
– $STZ -3.9% (quarter beat, but adjusted FY guidance was merely reiterated and beer depletions declined)
– $BE -3.8%, $CEG -3.5%, $EME -1.9% (AI-power and data-center infrastructure winners give back part of recent gains amid the broader risk-off rotation)
The massive equipment company has been hit hard by semiconductor selling but now the tide could be turning.
Let’s find out if the relief rally can last, whether we can believe fighting will stop in Gaza … and … what I know about that footage of traders on the news.
We’re leveraging the market’s pullback and insights from Samsung, Lam Research and Microsoft earnings.
OPEC+ meeting expectations, politician Warsh and other headlines are moving stocks this morning.
Renewed conflict in the Middle East, Microsoft and Meta earnings and other headlines moving stocks this morning.
The good news is Iran and the U.S. seem to be talking again. The not-so-good news is the AI tech trade and all its parts are falling fast. Let’s dig in.