The megacap growth sectors went from worst (Friday) to first (Monday) as chipmakers snapped an eight-session losing streak, but rising Treasury yields left seven sectors, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and the equal-weight S&P 500 lower.
Regrets, I’ve had a few
But then again, too few to mention
I did what I had to do
And saw it through without exemption
I planned each charted course
Each careful step along the byway
And more, much, much more
I did it, I did it my way
– Frank Sinatra, My Way Frank Sinatra – My Way | Live from The Main Event at Madison Square Garden (1974)
Few in the business take ownership of their losses and missed opportunities (long and short).
Every day I listen/view the B.S. of guests and panelists in the business media — as if they never made an investing or trading boner. Their insistence of buying lows and selling highs is disingenuous.
But I do take ownership of my screwups.
As I have written, I am often wrong and always in doubt (and I mean that, as they are just not words).
Over the last four weeks I have had my share of blows — most recently in cannabis and Glass House ($GLAS) (which I will be discussing after speaking to management). After profiting and selling near the 52-week high, I sold my PepsiCo ($PEP) prematurely (after buying back near the 52-week low) — missing the last five-day advance from my sale price.
I failed to take advantage of excellent opportunities on the long side — specifically Microsoft ($MSFT) and Amazon ($AMZN), which I was poised to buy, but my ursine predilection held me back.
I also failed to take advantage of the opportunity set of individual short names. I saw “no broadening” and I took a quick and profitable trade shorting the Russell Index ($IWM) right at the highs, but I missed the big move (from $305 to under $280). I took a series of short-term gains in trading $SPY and $QQQ but missed the big (and playable) move down in the Nasdaq.
So…
My national anthem… but you need not rise!
My friends I have made it clear and I have stated my (bearish) case of which I am certain.
I have travelled each and every highway.
But more, more than this I did it my way.
Regrets I have had a few recently.
I grew tall through it all and did it my way.
I’ve loved, laughed and cried
I had my fill, my share of losing.
And now, as the tears subside.
I still don’t find that it’s all so amusing.
I took the blows but did it my way.
Position: Long GLAS (S)
The hot CPI report finally triggered the rotation. Breadth was the best in weeks as money moved toward the laggards.
Here’s my plan as AI stocks are sliding while money moves into the names that struggled for months, and biotech is leading the way.
A hotter-than-expected September CPI report and a deepening selloff in AI names sent the S&P 500 down more than 1% for the first time in 54 sessions, with the Nasdaq and small caps falling nearly 2%.
“Investment vision is always 20/20 when viewed from the rear view mirror.”
– Warren Buffett
$IWM is -$5 today at $271.50 and down from a recent high of $305.
So when the panelists talk about a broadening market, turn off your television and do some research.
Position: None
Bonds are improving, but the stocks that should benefit aren’t responding.
New lows topped 500 and more than 60% of stocks are below their 200-day averages, while the mega caps hit another record.
When I look at what’s on my screens I see exactly why I don’t want to snap up even stocks that appear like bargains.
Bank earnings and CPI this week will offer clues on how the gap between AI and everything else closes.
