Earnings Dynamics Have Changed With Biggest Reports Ahead
Semiconductor weakness lifted the hyperscalers again while the market waits on the Fed.
Semiconductor weakness lifted the hyperscalers again while the market waits on the Fed.
Breadth holds up while chips fall, and this biotech chart is setting up ahead of earnings season.
Rising rates and capex fears hit at the same time, but the rotation is limiting the damage.
The news is hitting and there is some knee-jerk selling.
Here are today’s things:
* Covered my index shorts very early (4:30 AM) premarket: $SPY at $746.05, $QQQ at $703.66 and $IWM at $295.66
* Shorted $GRNY at $37.58
* Added to cannabis: $TRLV at $8.67 and $MSOX at $2.51
* Shorted more $JOET at $45.29
* Sold some $PG long at $150.31
Position: Long TRLV (S), MSOX (VS), PG (VS); Short JOET (S), GRNY (L)
With S&P futures -23 handles and Nasdaq futures -225 handIes I covered my index shorts for a profit:
* $SPY $746.05
* $QQQ $703.66
* $IWM $295.66
From yesterday:
Here are today’s things:
* Shorted SPY at $748.67, QQQ at $709.06 and IWM at $295.97(all very small)
* In cannabis land, I added to these longs: GTBIF at $7.10, TRLV at $8.79 and VRNO at $5.69
* Added to PEP long at $134.57
* Shorted GRNY at $27.52 and JOET at $45.28
Position: Long PEP (S), GTBIF (S), TRLV (S), VRNO (S); Short SPY (VS), QQQ (VS), IWM (VS) GRNY (M), JOET (S)
BY Doug Kass · Jul 21, 2026, 2:30 PM EDT
Position: None
Here are today’s things:
* Shorted $SPY at $748.67, $QQQ at $709.06 and $IWM at $295.97(all very small)
* In cannabis land, I added to these longs: $GTBIF at $7.10, $TRLV at $8.79 and $VRNO at $5.69
* Added to $PEP long at $134.57
* Shorted $GRNY at $27.52 and $JOET at $45.28
Position: Long PEP (S), GTBIF (S), TRLV (S), VRNO (S); Short SPY (VS), QQQ (VS), IWM (VS) GRNY (M), JOET (S)
I shorted very small all three indices:
* $SPY $748.72
* $QQQ $709.25
* $IWM $295.97
I plan to work on a scale higher — with a wide berth.
Position: Short SPY (VS), QQQ (VS), IWM (VS)
I stopped myself out for a small loss on my IWM ($IWM) short.
Obviously, timing wasn’t right.
But I will be back.
Positions: None
I initiated a non-broadening short, $IWM, late yesterday:
I am reinitiating a short in the Russell index:
* IWM $296.08
Non-broadening philosophy.
Position: Short IWM (S)
BY Doug Kass · Jul 15, 2026, 1:47 PM EDT
And I cautioned about the vicious rotation (which I view as unhealthy):
* This sort of sector and sub-sector movement rarely ends well…
The violence of the market’s rotation is not a good thing.
It is only a matter of time before we see a (leveraged) hedge fund blow up.
I believe it might be presaging a market structure “event” — such as a flash crash (at some point).
Position: None
BY Doug Kass · Jul 15, 2026, 2:15 PM EDT
Position: Short IWM (M)