Weekly Roundup: The AI Trade Got Smacked. We’re Following the Data, Not the Fear
We put capital to work in two holdings, exited another and bumped up our price target for a long-time position.
Industrial Output Jumps the Most Since April to Highest Since 2018
Industrial production beats estimates, rising from a year earlier the most since September 2022, as manufacturing rebounds from August’s dip and utility output jumps to a record high led by electricity.
Import Prices Jump as AI-Related Costs Rise the Most Since 1987
Fuel prices rebounded and nonfuel import prices hit their highest annual rate since April 2022, with semiconductor prices posting an eighth straight record year-over-year gain.
Despite Hot PPI, Yields Fall, Sparking Broad Rally Held Back By Tech
Stocks recovered from early losses as Tech bounced and the largest drop in 10- and 30-year yields in over a year saw five sectors gain over 1%.
Producer Prices Jump the Most Since 2022 on Record Energy Surge
After Wednesday’s hot CPI print, PPI comes in even hotter, more than double estimates in a broad advance led by a record jump in energy prices.
Gasoline Fuels the Retail Sales Beat in September
Retail sales rose 0.8% versus a 0.3% estimate, but gas stations were over 70% of that gain while the GDP-linked control group missed and Census’s annual revision cut sales levels by about 4.5%.
Initial Jobless Claims Extend Longest Run Since 1969
Initial claims came in at 199,000, only the 11th week below 200,000 since 1969, while the four-week average of continuing claims fell to its lowest level since April 2023.
Hotter Inflation and AI Weakness End the S&P 500’s Run Without a 1% Drop
A hotter-than-expected September CPI report and a deepening selloff in AI names sent the S&P 500 down more than 1% for the first time in 54 sessions, with the Nasdaq and small caps falling nearly 2%.
Bank Earnings Get a Cool Reception as Chip Jitters Linger
Memory makers fell again and the big banks missed Street expectations but Mag-7 strength kept the S&P 500 flat.
Chip Selloff Keeps a Lid on Indices Despite Another Day of Broader Gains
Eight of 11 sectors rose and the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained for a third straight day, but another selloff in chipmakers kept the S&P 500 little changed and the Nasdaq in the red on the lightest volume of the year.