A Tech Led Rebound to Kick Off the Week
Let’s dig in following an up day on Wall Street to see what’s happened and what to expect.
My Portfolio Is Getting Some ‘Energy’
I’m getting into these two familiar oil and gas stocks amid an uncertain market.
From The Street of Dreams
$KKR: Morgan Stanley lowered the firm’s price target on KKR to $138 from $147 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. With alts down about 27% year-to-date and positioning light, the firm sees upside for alternative asset managers despite near-term realization headwinds. Easing wealth redemption requests, robust institutional demand and resilient fee growth support the firm’s 2027 outlook and re-rating, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
$BX: Morgan Stanley analyst Michael Cyprys lowered the firm’s price target on Blackstone to $165 from $184 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. With alts down about 27% year-to-date and positioning light, the firm sees upside for alternative asset managers despite near-term realization headwinds. Easing wealth redemption requests, robust institutional demand and resilient fee growth support the firm’s 2027 outlook and re-rating, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
$APO: Morgan Stanley lowered the firm’s price target on Apollo Global to $150 from $164 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. With alts down about 27% year-to-date and positioning light, the firm sees upside for alternative asset managers despite near-term realization headwinds. Easing wealth redemption requests, robust institutional demand and resilient fee growth support the firm’s 2027 outlook and re-rating, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
$AAPL: UBS tells investors in a research note that Apple iPhone availability data shows year-over-year wait times down about 4 days for the Pro and flat for Pro Max, with recent week-over-week declines of 1 and 5 days, respectively, signaling limited estimate upside and potential demand elasticity concerns following Apple’s price increases. The firm maintains a Neutral rating and $296 price target.
$TSLA: JPMorgan keeps a Neutral rating on Tesla after the company unveiled its second-generation Roadster. The car “combines conventional automotive engineering with rocket propulsion technology,” the analyst tells investors in a research note. JPMorgan says production is targeted for 2028, compared with the original 2020 delivery target announced when the vehicle was first unveiled in 2017. Tesla did not disclose final pricing, battery capacity, driving range or anticipated production volumes, adds the firm. It points out that Tesla indicated the Roadster would eventually become its only manually driven vehicle as the broader portfolio transitions toward full autonomy.
$KO: Barclays raised the firm’s price target on Coca-Cola to $98 from $93 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm adjusted targets in the consumer staples group as part of a Q3 earnings preview. The “band of interest” within consumer staples remains “quite narrow” as few companies offer a “dependably defensive outlook and attractive valuation,” the analyst tells investors in a research note.
Note: I covered all of my private equity shorts ($BX, $KKR and $APO) on Wednesday at lower prices than Thursday’s close. Yesterday I sold down my small $KO long on the Kentucky Fried Chicken/Pepsico news and as the shares of Coca Cola hit an all-time high.
Positions: Long KO VS
More Short Covers
I am covering my private equity shorts:
* $BX $106.31
* $APO $113.17
* $KKR $84.92
Position: None
From The Street of Dreams
Bank of America lowers financials…
KKR – BofA lowered the firm’s price target on $KKR to $138 from $143 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm is adjusting its estimates and price targets for alternative and traditional asset managers ahead of Q3 earnings from the group.
$BX – BofA analyst Craig Siegenthaler lowered the firm’s price target on Blackstone to $122 from $138 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm is adjusting its estimates and price targets for alternative and traditional asset managers ahead of Q3 earnings from the group.
$APO – BofA analyst Craig Siegenthaler lowered the firm’s price target on Apollo Global to $161 from $163 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm is adjusting its estimates and price targets for alternative and traditional asset managers ahead of Q3 earnings from the group.
$WFC – Goldman Sachs lowered the firm’s price target on Wells Fargo to $96 from $107 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Large-cap banks enter Q3 earnings with solid revenue and credit fundamentals but more normalized capital-markets activity, continued NII support from loan growth and fixed-rate repricing offset by higher deposit costs, and moderating capital returns, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
$C – BofA analyst Ebrahim Poonawala lowered the firm’s price target on Citi to $160 from $176 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm revised its Q3 EPS estimates for the GSIB banks up by 0.8% on average, and reduced its price targets for the group down by about 8% on average, citing lower multiples.
$GS BofA lowered the firm’s price target on Goldman Sachs to $1,050 from $1,300 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm revised its Q3 EPS estimates for the GSIB banks up by 0.8% on average, and reduced its price targets for the group down by about 8% on average, citing lower multiples.
$WFC – Morgan Stanley upgraded Wells Fargo to Overweight from Equal Weight with an unchanged price target of $102. Morgan Stanley also moved Wells to Top Pick. The firm believes 2026 has been a transition year, with Wells rebuilding its “growth engine ahead of the full benefit to earnings and returns.” The bank’s earnings profile will improve in 2027 with less margin dilution, more revenue from existing client relationships, and continued operating leverage, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Morgan Stanley views Wells shares as undervalued and sees a path to 17% to return on tangible common equity in the second half of 2027 and 18% in 2028
Positions: Short APO VS KKR VS BX VS
More Tales From Nvidia: In the Stock Market It Is AI All the Time… and More (Issue #257!)
During Q3 2026 four equities (stimulated by perceived AI growth opportunities) — $MSFT, $NVDA, $AAPL and $META — added about 300 points to the gain in the S&P index, representing more than 200% of the index’s total gain. The other 496 stocks subtracted approximately 150 points:
Back to AI “concentration” credit risks — specifically that private equity (we remain short $BX, $APO, $OWL and $KKR) is piling into the same AI data center bet:
Carlyle warns private credit is piling into the same AI data center bet
More on depreciation schedules and creative accounting:
Finally, continued AI skepticism from “Moon Alice” — Roger McNamee:
and…
Position: Short BX (VS), KKR (VS), APO (VS), OWL (VS)
Feeling Like It’s 2007 All Over Again
At a time of serious economic and geopolitical risks, including growing fears of an AI bubble, the equity risk ‘premium’ is now in negative territory.
Things I Did Yesterday
Here are Monday’s things:
* I reshorted the indices after the market closed last night — $SPY at $767.32 and $QQQ at $717.13.
* I added to my $MSOS common at $4.94 and call long positions (slightly out of the money for September and October).
* I added to $VRNO at $6.12.
* I initiated a very small $GLD long at $405.42 (which I added to overnight at $401.28).
* I added to my $CRM short at $260.24.
* I reshorted the private equity space — $APO at $137.61, $BX at $142.94 and $KKR at $110.63.
* I reshorted $CRWV at $85.02.
* I reshorted $JPM at $356.14.
Long MSOS common VL calls S VRNO S GLD VS
Position: Short SPY (S), QQQ (S), CRM (S), CRWV (VS), APO (VS), BX (VS), KKR (VS), JPM (S)
With September Cool Comes Three Big Concerns
I’m looking forward to a break from the heat, but not to these economic worries that could add to already poor seasonality.
Of All Post-Earnings Worries, This One Keeps Me Up at Night
Fighting with Iran and threats the conflict could spread concern me. Another worry is Japan’s bond yields. But neither bother me as much as this.