Weekly Roundup: The AI Trade Got Smacked. We’re Following the Data, Not the Fear
We put capital to work in two holdings, exited another and bumped up our price target for a long-time position.
We put capital to work in two holdings, exited another and bumped up our price target for a long-time position.
– $TCRT +25.0% (extends its surge after closing a PAH-focused biotech acquisition and securing about $350M of financing)
– $NCPL +19.0% (regains Nasdaq minimum-bid compliance)
– $SITC +18.0% (declares a $3.00 special cash distribution after an asset sale and plans to delist from the NYSE)
– $FFR +9.0% (launches the $2,490 FF Nova humanoid robot and outlines a proposed roughly $200M robotics combination)
– $ASM +6.5% (Roth/MKM upgrades to Buy from Neutral and raises its target to $8)
– $SMTC +4.0% (raises Q3 sales, operating-margin and EPS outlooks at its data-center analyst day)
– $TSLA +3.0% (unveils a redesigned Roadster featuring rocket-style thrusters)
– $STLA +3.0% (better-than-feared Q3 shipment update showed consolidated volumes down just 1% year over year)
– $FRO +3.0% (tanker shares rebound as geopolitical disruption continues to support shipping rates)
– $RBRK +3.0%, $VRNS +2.5% (cybersecurity names rise after VRNS agreed to a $6.3B all-cash acquisition)
– $NOK +2.5%, $AAOI +2.0% (networking and optical names gain after SMTC raised its data-center outlook)
– GUTS -53.0% (REMAIN-1 met its six-month co-primary endpoint, but 5.1% weight regain versus 8.2% for sham and a still-pending one-year co-primary fell short of elevated expectations)
– $JAGX -29.0% (special preferred-stock dividend was paid, with each preferred share set to convert into five common shares on November 2, intensifying dilution concerns)
– $MDXH -17.0% (suspends FY revenue guidance after preliminary Q3 revenue of about $22.7M)
– $TLK -15.0% (Indonesia ADR slumps after a warning that the country could face an emerging-market index downgrade)
– $CRWV -5.0%, $IREN -3.5%, $NBIS -2.5% (AI-infrastructure names extend their selloff on debt-funded buildout and profitability concerns)
– $TRV -4.0% (Q3 beat with lower-than-expected catastrophe losses, but shares sell the news after elevated expectations)
– $SKHY -3.5%, $SNDK -2.5%, $MU -2.5%, $ALAB -2.5%, $WDC -2.0%, $AMD -2.0% (chip and storage names weaken as the AI trade de-risks amid higher-rate concerns)
– $IONQ -2.5%, $ASTS -2.5% (speculative long-duration growth names weaken as rate-hike expectations rise)
– $MSTR -2.5%, $HUT -2.0%, $CRCL -1.5% (crypto-linked shares trade lower amid broad risk-off positioning)
We continue to see chip capacity tightness ahead, creating an even bigger industry pain point.
A hotter-than-expected September CPI report and a deepening selloff in AI names sent the S&P 500 down more than 1% for the first time in 54 sessions, with the Nasdaq and small caps falling nearly 2%.
September CPI on deck, Microsoft’s massive data center plans and other headlines moving the market this morning.
The chip-equipment bellwether is sending an important signal for AI and the market. Just make sure you’re in the right spots.
Agentic AI, rising prices and a path to 54% gross margins underscore our thesis.
– $VFC +4.0% (Piper Sandler and Truist upgrade as signs of Vans stabilization improve turnaround confidence)
– $GS +3.0% (Q3 beat, led by surging equities revenue and stronger investment-banking fees)
– $UNH +2.5% (Q3 beat and 2026 adjusted EPS outlook raised to at least $20.50)
– $SNDX -17.0% (MAXPIRe Phase 2 axatilimab trial in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis missed its primary endpoint)
– $S -7.0% ($1.25B convertible senior-notes offering raises dilution and stock-supply concerns)
– $WDC -6.0% (UBS cuts its target on hard-drive capacity and pricing uncertainty, compounding the storage-sector selloff)
– $SNDK -6.0%, $STX -5.5%, $MU -3.5%, $MRVL -2.5%, $AMD -2.0% (memory, storage and chip names slide as reported CXMT advances intensify China-competition fears)
– $JPM -3.5% (Q3 EPS and revenue missed as fixed-income trading weakened despite stronger investment-banking fees)
– $DPZ -3.0% (Q3 beat, but US same-store sales growth slowed sharply, raising demand-recovery concerns)
– $JNJ -3.0% (Q3 beat, but medtech growth was soft and international device sales faced geopolitical disruption)
– $ADBE -1.5% (HSBC downgrades to Hold, citing open-source competition risks)
– $WFC -1.0% (Q3 EPS beat, but revenue and net-interest income missed expectations)
Nine of 11 sectors rose, powering the S&P higher despite semiconductor weakness. Small-caps, though, posted a fifth straight weekly loss for the first time since 2022.
We added to one holding while our concern for higher energy prices starts to play out.