Monday’s Closing Market Stats
Closing Volume
– NYSE volume 10% below its one-month average
– NASDAQ volume 7% below its one-month average
– VIX index: down 7.45% to 18.50
Breadth
S&P 500 Sectors
% Movers
Heat Maps
Position: None
Amazon Leads Unconvincing Bounce After Morgan Stanley Price Target Change
The mega caps did the heavy lifting while most stocks went nowhere.
Regrets I Have Had a Few… Recently
Regrets, I’ve had a few
But then again, too few to mention
I did what I had to do
And saw it through without exemption
I planned each charted course
Each careful step along the byway
And more, much, much more
I did it, I did it my way
– Frank Sinatra, My Way Frank Sinatra – My Way | Live from The Main Event at Madison Square Garden (1974)
Few in the business take ownership of their losses and missed opportunities (long and short).
Every day I listen/view the B.S. of guests and panelists in the business media — as if they never made an investing or trading boner. Their insistence of buying lows and selling highs is disingenuous.
But I do take ownership of my screwups.
As I have written, I am often wrong and always in doubt (and I mean that, as they are just not words).
Over the last four weeks I have had my share of blows — most recently in cannabis and Glass House ($GLAS) (which I will be discussing after speaking to management). After profiting and selling near the 52-week high, I sold my PepsiCo ($PEP) prematurely (after buying back near the 52-week low) — missing the last five-day advance from my sale price.
I failed to take advantage of excellent opportunities on the long side — specifically Microsoft ($MSFT) and Amazon ($AMZN), which I was poised to buy, but my ursine predilection held me back.
I also failed to take advantage of the opportunity set of individual short names. I saw “no broadening” and I took a quick and profitable trade shorting the Russell Index ($IWM) right at the highs, but I missed the big move (from $305 to under $280). I took a series of short-term gains in trading $SPY and $QQQ but missed the big (and playable) move down in the Nasdaq.
So…
My national anthem… but you need not rise!
My friends I have made it clear and I have stated my (bearish) case of which I am certain.
I have travelled each and every highway.
But more, more than this I did it my way.
Regrets I have had a few recently.
I grew tall through it all and did it my way.
I’ve loved, laughed and cried
I had my fill, my share of losing.
And now, as the tears subside.
I still don’t find that it’s all so amusing.
I took the blows but did it my way.
Position: Long GLAS (S)
Another Divergence
Bond prices at the low of the day.
$TLT -$0.60.
The dead cat bounce might be over.
Position: None
Homewreckers
I have been researching the homebuilders as a possible contrarian (and long) investment.
But the increase in materials/supplies and labor costs coupled with ever-higher mortgage rates, which serve as a detriment to “moving up” purchases and, in general stretch affordability (pricing out first time buyers) makes it impossible for me to bottom fish at current levels.
I see rising homebuilders’ incentives and forward weakness in the top and bottom lines.
Position: None
Tweet of the Day (Part Trois)
Position: None
Chart of the Day: American Express Shows Some Life
The big credit card company now has a solid low in place.
Trying Something New for This Week’s Office Hours
Take note of this fresh twist on the typical Office Hours format.
Too Busy to Short
I should be shorting the indices on today’s ramp but am too involved in flushing out $GLAS and undertaking other research projects.
Position: Long GLAS (S)