Good Detective Work
Positon: None
A Bull on Gold
But the magnitude of the selloff in precious metals doesn’t appear to be as substantial as many think based on the long-term chart of gold:
For now I am approaching $GLD as a “trading sardine” and not yet as an “investment.”
Position: None
The AI Debt Boom
Position: None
Nscale Flames Out in Its IPO Debut
* As the bursting of the AI bubble comes into sharper focus…
Position: None
Heads Up on Rescheduling
Today is yet another important judicial decision on cannabis rescheduling.
You can get a heads up by watching the documents loaded on this governement site:
Position: None
Tech Stock Charts Don’t Look Good, but the Market Is Oversold
It’s still an Either/Or market, but right now, with the market oversold, we could see a bounce.
A Look at Wednesday
From my evening update:
US economic data is light Wednesday, with only weekly mortgage applications and EIA petroleum inventories.
The Fed remains in its blackout period ahead of next week’s October 27–28 FOMC meeting.
Non-Bill (>1yr in maturity) US Treasury auctions resume with a $13B 20-year bond reopening.
Q3 earnings season continues with 26 S&P 500 components including a number of AI-related names: Meta Platforms ($META), Tesla ($TSLA), Lam Research ($LRCX), Philip Morris ($PM), Thermo Fisher Scientific ($TMO), Texas Instruments ($TXN), IBM ($IBM), Abbott Laboratories ($ABT), NextEra Energy ($NEE), Danaher ($DHR), AT&T ($T), CME Group ($CME), Elevance Health ($ELV), CSX ($CSX), Moody’s ($MCO), Kinder Morgan ($KMI), United Rentals ($URI), Wabtec ($WAB), Crown Castle ($CCI), Northern Trust ($NTRS), Teledyne Technologies ($TDY), Las Vegas Sands ($LVS), Packaging Corp. of America ($PKG), Southwest Airlines ($LUV), Rollins ($ROL) and Globe Life ($GL).
Ex-US highlights are UK September CPI, PPI, RPI, public finances, August house price index, Japan September trade balance, New Zealand Q3 CPI.
People That Live in Glass Houses
This tweet from Graham Farrar, president of Glass House ($GLAS), could bring some stability to GLAS shares:
I have still not spoken to management.
Position: Long GLAS (S)
Shorted SPY Last Night as Oscillator Slips to Neutral
The S&P Short Range Oscillator slipped from modestly oversold to neutral at -0.06% vs. -0.66%.
Yesterday I traded $SPY from the short side and made a small profit on the move lower from the highs.
Last night I reloaded on the short side:
Dougie Kass
I am back shorting SPY at $771.57.
I am a seller on a scale higher tonite.
Position: Short SPY (S)
SpaceX Climbs as Musk Floats Tesla Merger
SpaceX ($SPCX) shares rose nearly 8% after hours following an earnings call packed with bullish forecasts:
- CFO Bret Johnsen said SpaceX’s revenue would reach $33 billion to $37 billion in the first quarter of next year, well above the $22.2 billion analyst estimate, per LSEG. CEO Elon Musk went further, saying he expects the company to reach an annual revenue run rate of $500 billion to $1 trillion by the end of 2027. Analysts project full-year 2027 revenue of about $110 billion, according to LSEG, which would be more than double this year’s, per CNBC.
- On its next launch, SpaceX aims to recover not only the booster but also the ship itself. “It will be the first time an orbital launch vehicle has been totally recovered,” Musk said. “We expect the Starship to fly weekly in the first half of next year,” he later added.
- On its Terafab project, Musk said the company has seen “some significant potential breakthroughs in chip fabrication, but I don’t think I should discuss that on an earnings call.”
- SpaceX currently has 1.7 gigawatts of compute, up from 0.6 gigawatts a year earlier. Musk expects 2.5 to 3 gigawatts this year and is aiming for 13 gigawatts by the end of next year.
- Musk said he expects to launch rockets from a planned “Starbase Louisiana” site in less than three years.
- Musk said SpaceX would keep investing heavily in more powerful Starlink satellites while building out “terrestrial networks” to help the business “become a major mobile carrier” in the U.S.
- SpaceX has been piloting its Grok Bot with a few trusted enterprise partners and expects wide deployment within a few weeks, Musk said.
- The company is targeting an orbital refueling mission early next year, a key step toward a Mars mission.
But perhaps the biggest news was Musk revealing that both SpaceX and Tesla ($TSLA) have formed special committees to discuss a merger. “Do I think it would be a good idea? Yes,” Musk said. “There’s a lot of merit to combining the companies,” he added. “I think it would be a good idea, but it’s really up to the special committees of both companies.” Tesla is up over 2% in the overnight session.
“There’s no question that Musk wants the merger, and he wants to get it done sooner rather than later,” Gene Munster, founder of Deepwater Asset Management, which has invested in both companies, told Bloomberg. “It was a key question on the call, and Elon said it was a good idea about three times. He’s getting people excited about it, and he wants to bump up the enthusiasm.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/live-blog/2026-10-20/spacex-third-quarter-earnings-live-coverage
https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-sp-500-nasdaq-10-20-2026
