GRNY, PEP Moves

I added back to my $GRNY short at $28.43.

Selling on a scale higher.

I added to my $PEP long at $125.58.

Positions: Long PEP M, Short GRNY VS

Pepsi Tastes Even Better

We aggressively purchased $PEP in the premarket on Thursday and in early trading in the regular session.

Pepsico’s shares rose by over +$4 yesterday follwing the EPS and Sales guidedown.

Here is a summary of Goldman Sachs’ view of the company:

While investors debate whether PEP can grow earnings next year, we take a more optimistic view and expect faster topline growth on both the top and bottom lines albeit likely below the company’s l.t. growth algo. As such, we continue to see a positive risk-reward profile on the stock, especially as we think positioning and sentiment skews overly negative. Further, we think PEP’s valuation is attractive – with the stock trading at a very sharp discount (~10x) on a forward P/E basis relative to KO on a forward P/E basis – well below it’s l.t. historical average discount of ~1x – while also trading at a ~5x discount to PG (i.e., a Staples peer) despite a similar topline growth profile (to PG).

Bottom Line – We maintain our Buy rating on PEP, as we believe it remains well positioned given its strong brand portfolio and long-term growth opportunities in both

Food & Beverages, particularly given a robust innovation pipeline, its impressive revenue growth management capabilities, its owned distribution network and superior supply chain, which ensures the right (& affordable) products are available when & where needed. Overall, we believe PEP should be able to deliver sustainable average annual +MSD organic sales growth in the next decade – despite some near-term headwinds.

 Piper On PEP

Piper Sandler lowered the firm’s price target on PepsiCo to $140 from $176 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. Despite a Q3 EPS beat, driven by strong International momentum, PEP faces growing input cost pressure and weak U.S. trends. Further brand spend increases are coming, also weighing on margins. It has a decent innovation pipeline for 2027, focused on functional benefits, like protein and hydration, but sustainable better growth is still unproven, argues Piper.

BofA on PEP 

BofA analyst Peter Galbo lowered the firm’s price target on PepsiCo to $145 from $152 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The company’s Q3 beat came with better than feared Pepsi Foods NA organic sales and commentary on sequential organic revenue acceleration into Q4, but a lowered fiscal year earnings outlook signals ongoing cost challenges and raises questions around the ability to grow EPS in FY27, the analyst tells investors.

Positions: Long PEP M

More Tales From Nvidia: In the Real World Automation Is Tough  (Issue #259!)

We remain short of Nvidia ($NVDA) (with a $237.15 cost basis). The shares were $6 lower and indicated higher this morning; I plan to add to my trading short rental in NVDA.

Fred Hickey is brilliant and an old acquaintance:

Positions: Short NVDA VS

Upside, Downside Movers in the Morning

Upside

– $VEEA +45.0% (regained full Nasdaq listing compliance following its reverse stock split)

– $XRTX +21.0% (outlined planned FDA IND and Health Canada clinical-trial filings for XRx-026 in gout)

– $SAIQ +19.5% (confirmed an October satellite launch advancing its post-quantum secure-communications roadmap)

– $HUM +14.5% (2027 CMS Star Ratings exceeded its top-quartile revenue goal, with its largest contract returning above the bonus-payment threshold)

– $CLOV +11.5% (PPO plans earned 5 stars and the HMO plan earned 4.5 stars for 2027, strengthening 2028 payment and enrollment economics)

– $CCI +9.5%, SBAC +7.0%, AMT +7.0% (tower operators rally as SPCX’s low-band spectrum deal implies a terrestrial buildout and potential new-tenant demand)

– $FSLY +7.0% (Oppenheimer upgrades to Outperform with a $35 target on AI-traffic growth)

– $AAOI +6.0%, LITE +6.0%, COHR +4.5%, GLW +3.5% (optical names rise after LITE said AI-data-center demand has booked component capacity through early 2029)

– $ECHO +5.0% (SPCX’s additional spectrum purchase reinforces the value of ECHO’s existing spectrum and equity partnership)

– $SPCX +4.0% (agrees to acquire a nationwide 800 MHz spectrum portfolio for about $8B, strengthening its direct-to-device mobile push)

Downside

– $ALHC -23.0% (key California HMO contract fell to 3.5 stars, below the CMS quality-bonus threshold)

– $TMUS -7.5%, T -6.5%, VZ -6.0% (wireless carriers slide as SPCX’s nationwide low-band spectrum acquisition raises the threat of direct mobile competition)

– ASTS -3.0% (falls after SPCX acquired spectrum ASTS had pursued, increasing competitive and spectrum-access concerns)

– $CVS -3.0% (only about 69% of Medicare Advantage members are in 4-star-plus plans for 2027, down from 81% for 2026)

– $AAPL -2.5% (no clear fresh catalyst identified; unusually large mega-cap decline despite higher Nasdaq futures)

– $DAL -1.5%, LUV -2.0%, $UAL -1.5% ($DAL missed Q3 profit expectations and sharply cut its FY outlook as surging fuel costs overwhelmed strong demand)

Fed Speakers, Economic Calendar

4:00 p.m.: Federal Reserve Bank of Boston releases text of President Susan Collins’s (Non-Voter) remarks at a closed conference in Memory of John Leahy, sponsored by the Department of Economics and Ford School of Public Policy at the University of Michigan and the Department of Economics at New York University, in Ann Arbor, MI (Speaking time approx. NOTE: remarks will not include discussion of monetary policy)

Economic Calendar

SOURCE: TipRanks