ETF Action in the A.M.
Source: TheStreet Pro
Premarket Movers
Source: TheStreet Pro
Levels After Overnight Selloff
We’re seeing a 1% decline in S&P futures after an overnight selloff in Asia. Nasdaq is down 1.6%, Dow Jones down 0.6%.
Names like Tokyo Electron and SK Hynix lost about 6% overnight and that’s spilling over into U.S. markets.
I’m not predicting that the indexes will fall to these levels, but if they do, I’d be a buyer:
S&P 500: 7631
Nasdaq 100: 28,750 to 29,050
Dow Jones: 51,850
Charts and further details upcoming in this morning’s article.
AAII Sees Bulls Fall Further Under Bears:
American Association of Individual Investors (AAII), a retail focused weekly investor survey, moves more bearish:
AAII Bulls (those who see higher stock prices in 6 mths, blue line) eased to 36.9% from 38.7% the prior week (still though above the 28.8% five weeks ago, which was the least since September 2025), and falling back below the long-term historic average of 37.5% after two weeks above.
Bulls also remained below the level of the Bears (who see lower stock prices in 6 mths, red line), as the Bears rose to 45.8% from 41.6% the prior week (still though below the 53.3% five weeks ago, the highest since May 2025). That leaves Bulls above Bears just twice in the last 14 weeks. Bears also remain above the long-term average of 31.0% for a 36th straight week (and they’ve only been below it 9 weeks since Dec 12, 2024).
The Neutral camp (yellow line) dropped to 17.3%, the least since early early April, from 19.7%. It remains under the long-run average of 31.5% and has been over that only twice since July 2024.
Here are a few more charts from Helene Meisler’s X feed
Anthropological
Position: None
Fool Me Once… Fool the Trading Algos Over and Over Again
Why does the market fall for peace rumors time after time? Let me explain. Also, ever hear of the Great Pumpkin trade?
Meta’s Lack of Reality
Position: None
The Problem With Overconfidence
This morning’s stock futures are getting pounded. The S&P futures are -75 handles and the Nasdaq is -490 handles.
Yesterday I wrote about something that I find disturbing — continued and frequent hubris on the part of commentators, panelists and guests in the business media. I suppose if you say stuff confidently viewers may view talking heads as knowledgeable (We all know that confidence and investment successes are not equivalents!).
To me, presenting overconfidence in delivery is worse than being wrong. It creates a false sense of security and is a disingenuous character trait as it relates to a market that has an unprecedented range of outcomes (some of them being adverse).
Let me start by saying that I am quite fond of Joe Terranova. On Wednesday I wrote about this as it relates to Joe’s confident presentation and view (“talking his book”) that large-cap tech is resuming its momentum.
As for me, I am often wrong and always in doubt.
From yesterday:
My Comment of the Day
Dougie Kass
I couldn’t disagree more with Joe Terranova on Halftime now (I am not posting on Twitter!).
Though I am not high on large cap tech my disagreement is not that I don’t think AI related stocks will begin to outperform.
It is the degree of confidence/hubris that he is expressing in his view that the AI momentum trade will resume.
Position: None
BY Doug Kass · Oct 21, 2026, 12:25 PM EDT
Position: None
Key Earnings See Negative Reactions as Rotation Hits a Bump in the Road
SpaceX spent more, Tesla spent less, and Meta proved its spending works. The market is selling all three.