The Stock Market Forecast Shows Complacency with a Dash of Giddy
While most investor sentiment shows complacency, what’s going on with the options traders?
Early Morning Trading (5:01 AM)
I have moved from small to very small in the indices.
With S&P futures -77 handles I have covered some:
* $SPY $740.98
* $QQQ $709.65
I plan to re-short strength.
Position: Short SPY (VS), QQQ (VS)
Oscillator Is Now Neutral
The S&P Short Range Oscillator is now in neutral at 0.09% vs. 1.05%.
Position: Short SPY (S), QQQ (S)
We Can Call Options Traders Quite Giddy
While other measures of sentiment show complacency, it’s the options market where things are out of hand.
Half of Stocks Now Trading Under Key Average
It was another positive day with broader action but most of the market isn’t participating.
That’s All Folks
Alright, folks, that is it for me today. I have an $AMAT earnings call to listen to and am also getting an early jump on the Pro Portfolio’s Weekly Roundup.
Thanks for letting me play once again in the sandbox. Hope to see you ‘round these parts again before too long. Dougie is back at the wheel tomorrow.
Position: TheStreet Pro Portfolio is long AMAT shares.
The One Earnings Report to Watch After the Close
As you can see in the table below, we have a modicum of earnings reports after today’s close. While you may be a customer or even a fan of Boot Barn ($BOOT), odds are the market’s focus will be on April-quarter results and July-quarter guidance from Applied Materials ($AMAT).
Back in February AMAT shared it sees its semiconductor systems business up more than 20% in calendar 2026. Coming off the increased multi-year outlook from Taiwan Semi ($TSM) this morning and Cisco ($CSCO) resetting its expected 2026 orders from hyperscalers to $9 billion from $5 billion, we’ll want to see AMAT lift that “more than 20%” figure.
And an interesting story about that table. I attempted to use Microsoft Excel’s Data from Picture function three times to recreate it, but each time Excel stalled out. Using Claude, I uploaded the image and asked it to convert it to an Excel table. Done in seconds.
Just saying…
Position: The Street Pro Portfolio is long AMAT shares.
Yikes!
New York lawmakers are planning a new tax on New York City homes purchased in cash for at least $1 million, according to people familiar with the state budget negotiations.
The lawmakers are also considering expanding the tax to all-cash purchases over $1 million in New York, including those in the suburbs and upstate, people familiar with the matter said.
Position: None
Our Game Plan for Applied Materials and Its Earnings Report After the Close
We’re taking stock of consensus expectations and management’s prior expectations for 2026.
What Are the Odds (Part Deux)
Interactive Brokers Group ($IBKR) has launched a unified interface for trading prediction markets across three platforms — Kalshi, CME Group ($CME), and its subsidiary ForecastEx.
As it’s been explained, IBKR’s user interface aggregates similar contracts from all connected prediction market exchanges into one searchable interface, enabling users to trade contracts across all three prediction market exchanges from a single platform.
Per the company, its prediction markets will initially focus on election outcomes, climate events, and economic indicators.
Position: None