Just Another B.S. Narrative
All last week the perma-bull cabal (including head cheerleader Fundstrat’s Tom Lee (every day) and Wharton’s (where I received my MBA) Dr. Jeremy Siegel on Friday — both of whom called for an imminent rise in equity prices) remarked that the pleasant decline in energy prices would serve to 1. reduce inflationary pressures and 2. be a salutary factor contributing to the next run in the S&P index over the next few weeks.
Naturally Fin TV moderators had no pushback — didn’t even discuss the failure to end the Iran War (to date) or the improvisational foreign policy that seemingly would not bring a resolution and peace. Nor was the steady rise in global rates even brought up.
Well, as night follows day the price of energy products have reversed dramatically in the last 48 hours and equities folded like a cheap suit.
The price of crude oil rose by nearly 10% yesterday as the war escalated and is up by another +$3.45/barrel (+4%) this morning.
Listen to the same bullish crowd respond to this and develop a rationale and another reason for continued stock market strength in the next few days.
Again, I call B.S. as inflation, interest rates and crude oil prices — as a base case — will likely be higher for longer.
The narrative from the bulls will change but the facts don’t seem to interfere in their upbeat views.
And, oh, Apple’s ($AAPL) shares (last week’s fave because of price momentum) were downgraded by a brokerage (we shorted late last week).
Position: Short AAPL
