‘Jazzy’ Jeff Hirsch
From The Stock Trader’s Almanac:
NASDAQ’s annual “Christmas in July” Midyear Rally, defined as the last three trading days of June through the first nine trading days of July, is nearing its conclusion, and 2026 has largely followed the script. After a powerful advance into late June, the rally did pause as traders locked in gains, digested fresh economic data and reacted to the latest headlines. As of today’s close, July 9, NASDAQ has advanced 3.35% with three trading days to go.
While the final outcome remains to be seen, the recent consolidation is not unusual and fits the historical tendency for the rally to experience brief interruptions before a final push. Since 1985, this 12-trading-day seasonal window has produced an average gain of 2.5% and finished higher in roughly four out of every five years, making it one of NASDAQ’s most consistent seasonal patterns. Whether the rally can finish with another burst higher or begins to fade into the typical second-half summer lull will likely set the tone for the balance of July.
NASDAQ Seasonal MACD Update
NASDAQ’s Seasonal MACD indicator entered June in negative territory and remained there until today. As of today’s close, it is positive. Currently NASDAQ would need to decline at least 342.20 points (–1.31%) in a single day to turn its MACD (12-26-9) negative. Continue to hold associated positions in QQQ and IWM.
When NASDAQ’s Seasonal Sell signal criteria are satisfied, we will send an email to all members. As a reminder, we use daily closing prices to calculate MACD. Any intraday signal does not apply. At that time, we will finish repositioning the Portfolios for the “Worst Months” and anticipate adding to some or possibly all of the existing bond ETFs and cash holdings in the Tactical Seasonal Switching Strategy portfolio.
Position: Short QQQ (VS)
