I Remain Bearish as Investors Are Mispricing Risk
* Risks now dwarfs rewards…
Stated simply, my ursine market view continues to be influenced by:
• The lack of fiscal discipline in Washington, D.C., which has resulted in ever increasing annual deficits and a burgeoning national debt load.
• Improvisational fiscal and foreign policy could lead to adverse economic and market outcomes.
• The domestic economy and 2026-07 S&P earnings growth are heavily reliant on AI capital spending.
• We are skeptical whether the AI spend will translate into adequate returns on capital.
• Persistently high inflation.
• The likelihood that interest rates will be higher for longer.
• In today’s uneven K-shaped economy, many consumers are spent up and not pent up.
• An equity risk premium which has now morphed into an equity risk discount.
• Extended valuations in the 95%-tile (Cape Shiller Ratio, Buffett Indicator and other traditional metrics).
• We are in a Bull Market in Complacency with institutional cash allocations near record lows and the buy the dip mentality (too) firmly entrenched.
• Market structure risks are expanding materially. With the popularity of leveraged ETFs and ODTE options (zero days till expiration on indexes and, now even on INDIVIDUAL stocks) the markets have become gamified. Investor timeframes have been reduced as they behave more as gamblers in a casino than long term investors.
Positions: None.
