Have We Front-Run Post-Midterm Strength?
If you didn’t make it down to the end of the Week Ahead this week (The Week Ahead – Apple, Midterms and Jobs Test a Market on Edge), I mentioned that some caution on the post-midterm rally everyone is expecting may be appropriate.
Based on a Truist composite chart of midterm seasonality since 1950, the S&P 500 is normally up only about 1% at the end of October, then finishing up about 5%. This year, though, the S&P 500 was already up 10.7% through October.
Bulls, though, can argue that while equities generally rise from the start of October into the election, in this case they are down approximately 3.5% from the October peak.
