Higher Prices on the Menu

Collecting data points is pretty much a full-time business, and this morning I’m reading an article in NRN (Nation’s Restaurant News) and it has some interest stats ahead of today’s September Retail Sales report and quarterly results from restaurant companies in the next few weeks:

Restaurant menu price inflation continues to increase at a rate well over that of grocery stores but even more when compared with the amount of money Americans are actually earning…

The gap in prices compared with wages helps explain weak consumer sentiment, which declined 13.6% year over year in October, according to the Survey of Consumers at the University of Michigan.

It is also putting more pressure on restaurant chains that are contending with ongoing declines in customer traffic.

Quick-service restaurant sales were up just 0.6% in the third quarter, according to the data firm Revenue Management Solutions. Traffic during the period declined 2.6%.

The full NRN article can be found here.

Position: None

So, What Did Anthropic Say Yesterday?

One of the higher profile events from yesterday was Anthropic’s pre-IPO meeting with investors.

Here is some of what was shared and reflects articles from the FT and Blooomberg:

– Anthropic PBC told prospective investors its third-quarter revenue hit $16.8 billion. Revenues were up from $11.5 billion in the three months to June and about $4.8 billion in the first three months of the year. 

–  The firm behind Claude told investors it had achieved profitability in the quarter on an adjusted basis. 

–  Anthropic is generating positive free cash flow, had adjusted gross margin of 85% and an over 11% positive adjusted operating margin as of the third quarter.

–  Anthropic told investors that it was cash flow positive and banking $1.70 in revenue for every $1 spent on computing power in the third quarter.

What Wasn’t Shared?

Per the FT:

Anthropic did not share an update to its annualised revenue, which hit $65bn at the end of July. But SemiAnalysis, a research firm, projected sales grew to roughly $74bn on an annualised basis based on the new figures. Those estimates are lower than more bullish predictions during the summer, when a number of Anthropic’s investors told the FT the company would far surpass $100bn in annualised revenue by year-end.

What’s Next?

Anthropic is set to begin formally marketing its IPO as soon as the week of November 9, putting it in line to begin trading before the Thanksgiving holiday.

And with that we should look forward to the eventual S-1 filing and what it has to say, as well as comments collected from the IPO roadshow.

You can bet your sweet bippy we here at TheStreet Pro will be very interested in any updates to Anthropic’s plans to spend more than $500 billion on infrastructure and computing power over the next decade.

Position: None

Buckle Up for a Busy Day!

With a few hours to go until the market open, S&P futures are in the red but not as much as the Nasdaq futures, thanks to renewed concerns over, you guessed it, AI spending. 

That comes even though Taiwan Semiconductor ($TSM) bested top and bottom-line expectations for its September quarter and guided current quarter revenue to $52.3 billion-54.3 billion vs. $50.22 billion FactSet consensus. During its earnings call, we’ll look to see what Taiwan Semi says about capacity utilization and incremental capital spending to address it. 

We’ll also have more to say on Taiwan Semi’s revenue mix during the September quarter, but odds are it strongly favored AI and data center, and we say this following IDC’s findings that Q3 2026 smartphone shipments fell 22% year over year. IDC now expects any recovery in growth won’t come until 2028, at the earliest.

And here’s the standout comment from IDC as if a 22% shipment drop wasn’t enough: “Memory costs have surged approximately 350% since last year and are still rising, creating substantial pressure on vendor margins and shipments. The worst is yet to come.”

With that all as a setup, we’ve got a busy morning with quarterly results from: 

BNY Mellon ($BNY)

Charles Schwab ($SCHW)

Ericsson ($ERIC)

First Horizon ($FHB)

Manpower ($MAN)

PNC ($PNC)

U.S. Bancorp ($USB)

In addition to the weekly jobless claims data, we also have September PPI and Retail Sales out at 8:30 AM ET as well as some regional Fed indices. 

It’s going to be a whirlwind of potential tailwinds and headwinds, but here at the Diary we’ll do our best to connect the dots and share insights along the way. 

Buckle up my friends, we’re going in!

Position: None

Wednesday’s Closing Stock Market Stats

Closing Volume

– NYSE volume 8% above its one-month average 

– NASDAQ volume 5% above its one-month average 

– VIX index: up 10.48% to 16.87

Breadth

S&P 500 Sectors

% Movers

Heat Maps

Position: None

Contributor Comment of the Day

From “Meet” Bret Jensen:

Bret Jensen

Just shocking dept.

CoreWeave shares tumble over 16% as bond yields near 15% on concern about AI borrowing binge.

Thank goodness the three founders of the company have been able to dispose of over $2.3 billion in shares to retail investors since the company IPO’d in 2025. I would hate to think such upright individuals would end up in the poor house. Stock is now down over 60% from its post IPO highs.

Position: None

Still Adding to Cannabis Holdings

Once again, as you can see from the tweets I have published in my Diary, today’s news is yet  another procedural setback.

Fortunately the judge has given the DEA only one week (on ten pages) to respond.

I continue to add to cannabis — with concentration of $MSOS and $GTBIF.

Position: Long MSOS common (VL) and calls (S), GTBIF (S) 

Varrell on Cannabis

Position: None