Boockvar on South Korean Currency, Shipping Cost, Hiring Plans
From Peter Boockvar:
Wake up, check Kospi/Hiring plans falter/Shipping prices up/Platinum/Resilient? It depends
After waking up each day for a while to see first thing what JGB yields were doing overnight, it’s now watching how the South Korean Kospi traded. It fell by 5.5% after falling by 2.8% Thursday but still is up 94% year to date because of Samsung and SK Hynix which dominate the index, as we know.
Kospi
Ahead of today’s May jobs report, the NFIB yesterday released its small business May Plans to Hire in the coming 3 months figure and it unfortunately fell to 9, down 4 pts m/o/m to the lowest level since May 2020 and matching the weakest since August 2014 before that. Also, job openings that could not be filled dropped 5 pts to also the lowest since May 2020 at 29%.
The chief economist at the NFIB said, “Concerns about rising labor costs increased significantly to the highest reading in the survey’s history. Small business owners are facing mounting pressure to retain workers, and many firms are navigating costly new state mandates. While current conditions restrict Main Street’s already thin profit margins, compensation measures remain steady for now.”
Plans to Hire
Container shipping prices jumped again according to the World Container Index. The Shanghai to NY route saw prices sharply higher by 20% w/o/w to $5,505, the highest in a year. The Shanghai to LA trip was 31% pricier w/o/w to $4,565, also the highest since June 2025. The price of a container from Shanghai to Rotterdam is the most since January 2025, up 25% w/o/w.
Shanghai to NY
Shanghai to Rotterdam
I’ve expressed my positive stance many times on certain commodities/stocks and want to again mention platinum after the article in the WSJ I read yesterday titled “Sticker shock at the pump fuels a surge in hybrid sales.” The article said “Hybrid cars and trucks are now hotter than ever. Elevated gas prices…helped drive a 33% jump in hybrid sales in May compared with last year, according to data from Motor Intelligence – a bright spot in the otherwise stagnant new-car market.”
Why does this matter for platinum? A hybrid vehicle uses 10-15% more platinum than that used in an internal combustion engine auto. We are long platinum.
Platinum
Something I mentioned a few months ago that the current situation in the Persian Gulf and Hormuz Strait was going to completely alter the logistical waterway to make sure the current situation never happens again. And when done, Iran will lose all its leverage over the Strait of Hormuz. In case you didn’t see this article in the WSJ yesterday titled “The Hormuz squeeze is redrawing the oil map for good.” The piece said, “Across the Gulf, governments are pouring billions into new oil pipelines, rail corridors and energy storage hubs to bypass the waterway in what is set to become one of the most durable outcomes of the conflict. The new energy links are part of a broader redrawing of the region’s logistics map, shifting trade toward trucking, rail and new ports.”
To some company notables.
From Lululemon, trading down 13% pre-market:
“We saw encouraging signs in Q1 that reinforced we are moving in the right direction, but as we closed Q1 and entered Q2, we faced a few headwinds and a moderating sales trend. Based on our early analysis, there are two key factors impacting our trend. First, we experienced spikes of negative commentary in the media and on social channels with regard to our brand, which had an impact on traffic and overall top-line performance. And second, not all of our product launches have met our expectations.”
Coca Cola’s CFO had some interesting comments at the Deutsche Bank conference yesterday and a stock we own:
“I think the narrative on the consumer being resilient is a nuanced narrative because they’re not all the same. We have segments of our consumer base around the world that are under pressure, and we have a choice to stay relevant with them or not. Longer-term, the equation to have a more active and large consumer base, in our view, is the one that is going to create the most value longer term.”
“we have spoken for a couple of years now, under the general headline of the consumer is resilient, that seems to pop up every quarter, that some of them are not as resilient as you think. And so segmenting populations, whether it’s in the US or whether it’s in China, is a very important capability to build, so that you have the opportunity to evolve your portfolio, to stay relevant with those segments that are under the most pressure.”
“for people earning less than $50,000, $60,000 a year, when you take a step back and look at the cumulative impact of cost pressures on their typical basket of goods and services, the math is pretty obvious, it doesn’t work. They just don’t have the purchasing power to be able to, and so something’s got to go.” And a Coca Cola product they want to be the last to go.
The Bank of Japan got another reason to hike rates after base pay in April rose 3.4% y/o/y for a 3rd straight month, staying at the highest since 1992. Nothing market moving though today as JGB yields and the yen are little changed.
Base pay y/o/y
Positions: None.
