Boockvar on Labor Market
The following is from Peter Boockvar:
Labor market stats
Initial jobless claims remained subdued at 199k vs 198k last week and 6k under the estimate. The 4 week average falls further to just 199k vs 203k in the week before. Continuing claims though ticked up to 1.801mm from 1.777mm but also about 100k ish below what we saw consistently last year.
The story remains the same here with the muted pace of firing’s as measured here and a modest pick up in the pace of hiring relative to last year when mostly small business hiring froze up immediately after ‘Liberation Day’ and which lasted until January this year. We’ve seen a nice rebound since.
Challenger confirmed this with their July survey. “U.S.-based employers announced 33,429 job cuts in July,down 27% from the 45,849 cuts announced in June. It is down 46% from the 62,075 layoff plans announced in the same month last year, and marks the lowest monthly total in two years, according to a report released Thursday from global outplacement and executive coaching firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas.
July’s total is the lowest monthly total since July 2024, when 25,885 cuts were announced.”
Hiring improved too, “Employers announced plans to hire 16,095 workers in July, up 47% from the 10,933 plans announced in June and well above the 3,200 announced in July 2025. It is the highest July total since 2022, when employers announced 25,506 hiring plans.”
Treasury yields are at the highs of the morning as with a ‘stable’ labor market as ZipRecruiter described it, along with the above and ahead of the BLS data tomorrow, the Fed clearly has shifted their lens to the inflation picture.
Positions: None.
