From Peter Boockvar:

The central banker coffee talk/ISM manufacturing

I think Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem said it best at the central bank forum on stage with peers Kevin Warsh, Christine Lagarde and Andrew Bailey. “We have to be humble in this time of uncertainty.” In other words, and I think those thoughts are shared by the others, we just have to wait and see how events play out and they won’t commit until they have to. 

Specifically on the heels of the ECB rate cut, Lagarde acknowledged they were in a different place than the Fed and BoE with a deposit rate of just 2% and inflation now above that. 

With respect to Warsh, he reiterated again that we won’t get any clues as to what he’ll want to do next in terms of policy (which could be different or the same as his colleagues), if anything in the coming meetings. What I’m most interested in but yet to be revealed by him is his views of the concept of the ‘neutral rate.’ Powell’s view was that he’d know what that rate is when he sees it as it is a very econometrically modeled figure. In other words, who really knows what it is. The dot plot has the long term ‘neutral rate’ view at 1% real but does Warsh have a view on that? In the meantime, markets are going to be left very much on its toes without the hand holding of the central bank. 

The June ISM manufacturing index fell to 53.3 from 54 and just below the estimate of little change at 53.9. New orders were still good at 56 but down a touch m/o/m. Backlogs were 50.5 vs 52.2. Inventories rose back above 50 at 51.4 for the first time since April 2025.

Likely thanks to the drop in crude prices and other commodities, prices paid fell to 73 from 82.1, though still well above the 59 it was at in January. Supplier deliveries at 57.4 were down 3.2 pts m/o/m, but still elevated. This is what was said on pricing, “The Prices Index reading is still being driven by (1) increases in steel and aluminum prices that impact the entire value chain, (2) tariffs applied to many imported goods and (3) increases in petroleum-based products as a result of the Middle East conflict. Higher prices were reported by 55.1 percent of respondents in June, down 11.2 percentage points from May’s 66.3 percent.”

Employment got closer to 50 at 49.7. 

Export orders fell back under 50 at 48.5, down 2.1 pts m/o/m. 

Breadth softened a touch with 14 industries of 18 seeing expansion vs 16 in May. 

Bottom line, the parts of the US manufacturing sector that are feeding into the GenAI buildout is enjoying the massive spend on it, as we know. Other parts are seeing a more mixed bag but a lift over the past few months as a pull forward of ordering has taken place after the Middle East conflict began. I’m also hearing that ahead of another possible round of tariffs is resulting in more pull forwards. 

US Treasuries are little changed in response to both of the above. 

Here were the broad respondent comments and reflects hopes but realism with the pace of business activity and the challenges being faced:

• “The conflict in Iran has impacted pricing in every category of raw materials. Especially, items that have a heavy concentration of oil in the components like our adhesives.” [Chemical Products]
• “Continued pressure from conflict in Middle East is resulting in a more conservative approach to capital expenditures. We are seeing an increase in consumables and services purchasing from sectors like chemical analysis, per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS), and environmental and pharmaceutical testing.” [Computer & Electronic Products]
• “General purchasing operations are being shaped by (1) moderating but still elevated inflation, (2) higher interest rates and (3) continued policy uncertainty, particularly around tariffs and global trade. While overall economic growth remains resilient, it is slowing as consumer spending weakens under pressure from higher costs for energy and essential goods, reducing demand visibility and increasing cost sensitivity for buyers. Meanwhile, supply chains have stabilized compared to prior years but remain structurally complex, with trade policy volatility, geopolitical tensions and regulatory changes now ongoing cost drivers rather than temporary disruptions. Our organization continues balancing cost control with resilience, shifting sourcing strategies, tightening inventories and prioritizing supplier diversification and risk management.” [Computer & Electronic Products]
• “Retail electronics sales seem to have stabilized to some extent. The pause in tariff changes has been welcomed the last two months, but it’s only a matter of time before more confusion is introduced.” [Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components]
• “Input costs remain elevated across key categories, driven largely by Middle East conflict impacts and ongoing tariff uncertainty. Supplier lead times have stretched, which is influencing our inventory strategy and sourcing decisions. We are managing exposure through diversified supplier bases and contract structures that balance cost certainty with operational flexibility.” [Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products]
• “Conditions are optimistic but not yet booming for our company, even though many others, it seems, are experiencing growth. Machinery in support of defense and semiconductor manufacturing is very strong, a bright spot for our team. Industrial and medical clients are slow to purchase, focusing more on refurbished and upgraded units versus new ones.” [Machinery]
• “Core business remains solid in the face of ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. Cautiously optimistic that a deal will be reached to reopen the Strait of Hormuz; concerned about ongoing ripple effects even when the strait reopens but situation is highly concerning if the strait remains closed. AI industry continues to have huge capacity consumption for critical electronics. Monitoring impact of U.S. defense industry needs on supplier capacity.” [Miscellaneous Manufacturing]
• “No major changes from last month. With the potential ending of the Iran war, management is expecting us to go back to February pricing structures and plans since the increase in oil prices was driven by the war and not regular market influences.” [Petroleum & Coal Products]
• “Requests from suppliers in Europe and India for ‘energy surcharges’ have stopped this past month. We’re seeing continued capacity growth in the Asia-Pacific region (excluding China), including Vietnam, Thailand and South Korea. Most suppliers are building for the longer term as geopolitical protection from all sides.” [Transportation Equipment]
• “The new Section 232 tariffs continue to destroy our profitability and demand as we have to raise prices to deal with this gigantic tax. Add the ‘incentives’ for our company to pivot to purchasing non-U.S. sourced material, and one realizes the total ineptitude of this tariff policy.” [Transportation Equipment]

• Category: Daily Diary