Bi-Weekly Sentiment Survey: Mixed But Leaning Bearish

Avatar photo Jason Meshnick on July 14, 2026

Introduction

The sentiment survey is something we’re just testing right now, and I’m looking at ways to streamline it. For now, we’ve decided to make it bi-weekly, instead of weekly, and try different questions and formats.

Please leave your comments for what you’d like to see below.

On to this week’s results…

Part 1: TheStreet Pro’s Sentiment Survey Results

Question 1

Direction: Over the next 2-4 weeks, how do you feel about the S&P 500?

Score: -1

Commentary:  Of the 8 contributors who responded, 3 are bearish, 3 are neutral, and 2 are bullish. So, this is a mixed reading that slightly favors the negative side. Our largest bear, however, moved from Very Bearish, to just regular Bearish.

Question 2

Positioning: How are you currently positioned?

Score: -2

Commentary: Just like the overall sentiment, our team is mixed. 3 are underweight, 3 are overweight, 1 is neutral. This one gets a -2 score because of the remaining bear, which is Net Short.

Question 3

Risk: How would you rate overall market risk?

Score: -6

Commentary: There’s no doubt in our team’s collective mind. The entire market is risky. OK, 3 people are neutral, but nobody sees low risk. In fact, 4 members see Elevated Risk, and 1 sees Very High Risk.

Question 4

Opportunity: Do you anticipate an increase or decrease in risk levels?

Score: -2

Commentary: Again, 4 of our contributors see increasing risk, with 1 worried about a significant increase. 3 members think risk is on the decline. What side are you on?

Question 5

Portfolio Activity

Score: -5

Commentary: This one’s the most interesting to me. Despite the overall mixed tone of our contributors, none of the bulls are adding risk to their portfolios. Instead, we’ve picked up another broad seller to make 2 sellers, while 1 person is rotating into safer sectors.

Part 2: Qualitative Questions

It’s earnings season. What are you most worried about? Alternatively, what’s the biggest risk to the market?

  • Geopolitics is the biggest risk cited by one contributor. He specifically calls out high oil prices and rising interest rates, compounded by repercussions from the ongoing military conflicts.
  • Earnings quality. Specifically free cash flow growth that is negative or failing to keep up with non-GAAP earnings growth. Amazon ($AMZN) and Oracle ($ORCL) are victims here, due to surging CAPEX budgets.
  • AI! The risk that AI spend is slowing. Similarly, will AI names be able to maintain their price momentum, even with positive earnings (in other words, they’re overpriced).

What companies will have the biggest impact next week? Why?

  • Banks as earnings season kicks off. (Note: as I write this on Tuesday, the banks beat estimates and are trading above their opening prices, although WFC and C remain lower on the day)
  • Rotational action between AI, chips, biotech, and oil.

What stock are you most bullish on? Why?

  • Neostellar Capital ($NSLR), Marvell ($MRVL), Paccar ($PCAR)
  • Apple ($AAPL) because it shook off so-called bad news last week.
  • Biotech sector. It’s benefitted from rotational action.
  • European stocks and, “weirdly” solar. Trump mentioned the need to build out electricity in all forms except wind. Is he warming up to solar?
  • Cannabis, due to rescheduling

What stock are you most bearish on? Why?

  • Housing: Affordability and homebuilder usage of incentives that weigh on margins.
  • Energy, which is making lower highs and shorter duration rallies.
  • The broad indices, which will stagnate as rotation continues across the sectors.
  • Technology: Much of the rally since 2022 was based on OpenAI and Anthropic being able to raise tens of billions and moving toward profitability. That is looking less likely now.
  • Semis because of high valuations. The AI trade has crept into so many factors and sectors that large funds are worried they are overexposed.
  • Financials based on valuation relative to history
Avatar photo

Posted by Jason Meshnick

Jason Meshnick, CMT, is the CEO of TheStreet Pro. Jason also started TheStreet's Filthy Rich Animal newsletter for newer investors. If you're not on the list, you can click here to subscribe. Jason has over 30 years of industry experience across Wall Street, Fintech, university-level teaching, and financial journalism. 20 Years in Fintech Before joining TheStreet, Jason spent nearly 20 years in FinTech, developing dynamically generated AI investment analyses. His work was available at Schwab, TD Ameritrade, Fidelity, ETrade, and nearly every major online broker in the US and Canada. However, his real passion arose when he was asked to write a weekly educational investing newsletter for his coworkers. Topics included why vampires are so rich and what car racing can teach you about investing. These have been republished in Filthy Rich Animal. Learning about investing should be fun! Jason created the Fear & Greed Index for CNN Business. Although he jokes that it's his claim to no fame (it's famous, he's not), the model for understanding investor behavior has become incredibly popular and is used by everyone from hedge funds to individual investors. Lecturing at the University Level Teaching his coworkers led to a role at CU Boulder, where Jason taught classes in Investments and Corporate Finance. He's no longer teaching full-semester classes but continues to lecture on technical analysis and other investing topics. 10 Years of Wall Street Trading Experience Jason spent a decade working on Wall Street as a trader and market maker, where he learned all about market microstructure and investor psychology. During his first five years on the Street, he traded mostly closed-end funds and utility stocks. Later, as a market maker, he managed large caps like ExxonMobil, Texas Instruments, Disney, American Express, and Wells Fargo. When Not Thinking About Markets Jason’s other passion is cars. He earned the distinction of being the slowest SCCA road racing champion in recent history when he won his region's Spec Miata class despite having never led a race. Jason knows more about old sports cars than anybody has any right to and is always energized by a drive in his classic Porsche 911. He is Editor-at-Large for Autoblog, and his writing on cars can be found here. Jason is also a passionate skier. He taught skiing at Vermont's Mount Snow for six seasons when he was younger. While Jason lives in Colorado he prefers Utah's fluffier snow. Jason spends his spare time with his wife in Boulder, Colorado, and frequently visits his kids in college.

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