Axon’s Notes Offering Brings Additional Share Pressure
When we shared our updated Portfolio table of consensus EPS figures, RSI levels and potential pickup levels, we discussed how those pickup levels were guidelines, not hard and fast lines and any action would hinge on subsequent company developments. Well under 24 hours has passed since we posted that table, and we are already seeing shares of Axon Enterprise ($AXON) trade below the $495 pickup level found in the table.
What’s pushing AXON shares down Tuesday morning is something we’ve seen with other companies in recent weeks and months — a debt offering. In the case of Axon, the company is looking to float $1 billion in 0% convertible notes due in 2031 with an over allotment option of around $150 million. Exiting Q2 2026, Axon had $1.75 billion in notes with $1 billion due in 2030 and the balance in 2033.
While that is a step up in overall debt levels at Axon to ~$2.9 billion, coverage ratios compared against the $934.2 billion in adjusted EBITDA the company is expected to deliver this year and the $1.27 billion in 2027 should quell concerns. To that we’d add the company’s, future contracted bookings of $15.1 billion.
We’ll look to see what management says about this notes offering later today when it appears at the 2026 Piper Sandler Growth Frontiers Conference, but we’ll let the market absorb the news as well as the offering. Once that’s baked into the shares, subject to market conditions, we’ll look to rebuild the position after shedding shares just over $600 in early July.
Given our $700 price target, odds are a review of our current Two rating will be in order as well. And by market conditions, the closest one will be tomorrow’s Fed policy decision, updated SEP and the market’s reception to both as well as Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s comments.
Getting back to the $495 pickup point for AXON shares in our updated table, the above is a reminder that as things change, we have to reassess potential pickup levels and at times, exit points. As such, we’ll mothball that $495 pickup level.
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At the time of publication, TheStreet Pro was long AXON shares.
