Author: Doug Kass

FED SPEAKERS: 

5:40AM: US Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman (Voter) participates in a moderated discussion at the Institute of International Finance Annual Membership Meeting, Bangkok; Afternoon: Fed Bank of Chicago President Goolsbee (Non-Voter) Radio Appearance — NPR’s All Things Considered; 

1:30PM: Fed Bank of Richmond President Barkin (Non-Voter) participates in fireside chat at the Chamber RVA Regional Action Summit 2026, Richmond, VA (No text. No livestream; Event information: 

https://go.chamberrva.com/events/details/regional-action-summit-2026-6328);

3:00PM: Fed Bank of Chicago President Goolsbee (Non-Voter) Television Appearance — Yahoo! Finance; 

10:55PM: US Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman (Voter) participates in a moderated discussion at the Annual Meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank Group (Bangkok)

ECONOMIC CALENDAR:

Position: None

douglas cassel

The implications of Doug K’s article about diamonds being rendered worthless by new synthetic technology goes beyond the value of jewelry. For a few thousand years diamonds were a very portable and tax advantaged store of wealth that could be concealed from authorities. Many a family used diamonds to avoid wealth confiscation across borders, political upheaval, and taxes. This ease of transport and stealth is in contrast to gold, which presents real problems with moving any amount of significant value. Witness the premium charged to sell gold in the recent Iran War for those in the middle east. One of the use cases for crypto is this very niche, vacated by the development of lab grown diamonds. 

Diamonds Are Not Forever…

Diamonds are about to be absolutely worthless,

nature is finally healing… pic.twitter.com/fZbZNov5hs

— Dhanesh Gianani (@dhanesh500) October 10, 2026

Position: None

BY Doug Kass · Oct 14, 2026, 6:25 AM EDT

Paramount CDS about to take out financial crisis highs pic.twitter.com/BktVYcdb4r

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 13, 2026

👀 https://t.co/z5HgwQU8UQ pic.twitter.com/VdpxrpKNx7

— Chamath Palihapitiya (@chamath) October 13, 2026

Position: Short CRWV (S)

🇺🇸 cannabis 🌿 pic.twitter.com/jy5Qa32lPy

— Todd Harrison (@todd_harrison) October 14, 2026

The observation about an acceleration in Ohio same-store sales (following a hemp ban in March) was something I commented to one of our subs a week or so ago — when he expressed concerns about statewide unit sales.

Position: None

Knowledge@Wharton on AI Adoption. 

2026 AI Adoption Report – Knowledge at Wharton

Position: None

I'm increasingly partial to the argument that increases in the fed funds rate will do little to lower inflation, and may be counterproductive.
– AI investment is unlikely to slow because interest rates are slightly higher
– Energy is highly inelastic and rate changes can't…

— John Arnold (@johnarnold) October 13, 2026

Position: None

The IMF predicts that net borrowing by advanced economies would reach 5.2% of GDP this year, the highest since 2021. Deficits in China & the US will hit or exceed 8% of GDP in 2026, according to IMF forecasts. https://t.co/g5M6KOLYRo

— Lisa Abramowicz (@lisaabramowicz1) October 13, 2026

What will be particularly hard felt will be the large amount (outstanding) of U.S.-denominated debt by non U.S. entities — particularly in light of the strength of the U.S. dollar.

Will this be the next “thing” to be concerned about?

Position: None

Fun piece of trivia–Harry Winston (HWD) sold at the top in 2011. https://t.co/4EgUHgJQtf

— Jared Dillian (@dailydirtnap) October 12, 2026

Position: None

* Just ask Howard Marks, Lee Cooperman and others…

🇺🇸 S&P 500 ERP

Investors have little room for error. With the equity risk premium at its lowest level in more than two decades, US stocks offer less reward for the risks investors take
👉 https://t.co/yIk7SZYWVX

h/t @bcaresearch $spx #spx #bonds #stocks #equity pic.twitter.com/7mvbw3gjOD

— ISABELNET (@ISABELNET_SA) October 14, 2026

A low equity risk premium is at the core of my ursine market view.

Essentially, today’s “paper thin” ERP implies that market participants view bonds as more risky than equities.

And that is just stupid.

Position: None

55% of Situational Awfulness fund is in $SNDK and $MU. Degen gamblers never learn. https://t.co/cRSpg2yIzo

— Kashyap Sriram (@kashyap286) October 14, 2026

Position: None