Author: Doug Kass

After-Hours % Advancers

After-Hours % Decliners

Closing Volume

– NYSE volume 7% above its one-month average  

– NASDAQ volume 19% above its one-month average  

– VIX index:  down 3.53% to 17.78

Breadth

S&P 500 Sectors

% Movers

Nasdaq 100 Heat Map

Closing S&P 500 Heat Map

I wrote this late Friday afternoon and some may have not seen it. It “bears” reading:

Thoughts on My ‘Low Drama’ Shorts — And One in Particular

I spend a lot of time discussing my index trading short rentals. I do this daily and trade SPY and QQQ in size. Short-term market views (which form the basis for these shorts) are a popular and even controversial topic. Like butts, everyone has an opinion on the market — so the audience for an index “view” is sizeable.  

And I often short overbought and popular market leaders (with very extended RSIs like MU and INTC) where people have strong opinions on the long and short side.

These shorts are attention catching and tend to be tough shorts — particularly in the momentum-driven market of the last decade.

But, I don’t spend enough time discussing my individual (and often “low drama”) investment shorts — companies that sell simple and understandable products (widgets) whose secular prospects and business landscape are changing for the worst. These would include multi-year investment shorts like CHGG, DNUT, FIGS, BXMT, SNBR, RICK, FXLV, etc.

Case in point, my Winnebago (WGO) short.  

Check out WGO’s stock chart and the steady drop in share price.  As I wrote, it is a “low drama” and successful short based on the juxtaposition of several factors:

* Pressure on the K-shaped economy moving up vertically, towards the middle and upper-middle class that, traditionally, are among the target recreational vehicle buyers.

* The steady rise in the price of oil has pressured RV sales.

* Another headwind is the large rise in the cost of the average recreational vehicle — making purchases less attainable and reducing the total addressable market.

That said, when I was driving harness horses I owned a Minnie Winnie (Winnebago) that took me all around the country for stakes races. Back then, gas was a bit more than $1/gallon and the Winnebago cost me about $30,000. Today the price of gas can be 5 to 6x that price and a motorized RV costs between $50,000 up to over $600,000!

Position: Short SPY (VS), QQQ (VS), MU (S), INTC (S), CHGG (VS), DNUT (VS), FIGS (VS), BXMT (VS), SNBR (VS) RICK (VS), FXLV (VS), WGO (S)

BY Doug Kass · May 15, 2026, 3:08 PM EDT

Position: Short WGO (S)

Dr/ Ed Yardeni is on @cnbc with @TheJudgeCNBC now.

In the interest of full disclosure your guest Ed Yardeni recommended the reduction in hyperscalers/MAG7 on December 25, 2025 – since they accounted for too large a portion of the S&P 500 Index. At that time he suggested their…

— Dougie Kass (@DougKass) May 18, 2026

Position: None

Earnings Reports After the Close Monday (sorted by $ Market Cap)

Earnings Before the Open Tuesday May 19 (sorted by $ Market Cap)

Johnthegreek

With all due respect to my friend Doug, if “being early” means missing out on profits it is not “right as rain.”

I think DK may agree. 

Dougie Kass

jtg

Like some, I don’t dwell on the mistakes I have made in the past.  There is no percentage in doing that.

As I regularly write I make many mistakes and I am always in doubt.

I show my own primary analysis for subscribers and they can determine the merit. (Unlike others I don’t rely entirely on AI to explain my positions, I do it “bottoms us and top down.” And unlike others I don’t repeat the same thought/criticism ad nauseum – it becomes a “cause” for those people.)

I show most of my trades and investments in real time.

I admit to my mistakes and I try to limit the self congratulations.

To me, it is my analysis that has value to subscribers – as I often provide a logical, thoughtful and contrarian view.  From there, subs should use their own knowledge, rely on others that they trust and weight all this in coming down to investment conclusions.

dougie

Tell no one: the mkt has repeatedly 'discounted' the resolution of the Iran War. The eventual celebration of an agreement is likely to be briefer than might otherwise be expected. It is what you don't anticipate, and for the mkt there are so many candidates, that will kill you https://t.co/BPPuJugJPQ

— Scarlett & Carter's BaPa (@KASDad) May 18, 2026

Position: None

I covered the balance of my individual technology shorts for some good profits:

* $AMD $416.30 (-$6)

* $NVDA  $221.08

* $MU  $$680.95 (-$42)

* $SNDK $1,291.61 (-$115)

* $INTC $106.42 (-$2)

Position: None

From Peter Boockvar:

Builder sentiment a bit better but mood still sour

The May NAHB home builder sentiment survey rose 3 pts to 37 and better than the estimate of no change but still remaining well below the breakeven of 50. The key component that is Prospective Buyers Traffic on the demand side rose 3 pts after falling by a like amount in April but at just 25, it’s half the breakeven level.

The NAHB said “The housing market remains soft as higher mortgage rates, rising gas prices and economic uncertainty related to the war in Iran continue to dampen buyer demand.”

On what builders are doing to drive better demand, “The latest HMI survey also revealed that 32% of builders cut prices in May, down from 36% in April. The average price reduction was 6%, up from the 5% figure in April. The use of sales incentives was 61% in May, up slightly from 60% in April, and marking the 14th consecutive month this share has reached 60% or higher.”

Bottom line, nothing new here as we know all about the affordability challenges that particularly afflicts the young first time buyer. And now we have another move up again in mortgage rates.

NAHB

Prospective Buyers Traffic

Position: None