Consumer-Led Slowdown

Evidence of a consumer-led slowdown appearing today in the share prices of Lowes ($LOWE) (-$9), Home Depot ($HD) (-$5), Walmart ($WMT) (-$2) and Costco ($COST) (-$11).

Positions: None.

Upside, Downside Movers in the A.M.

Upside:

-IMVT +23% (earnings, color)

-POET +15% (Marex Securities Products builds 6% stake in POET)

-TATT +14% (earnings, color)

-EGHT +12% (earnings, guidance)

-RRGB +10% (earnings, guidance)

-IBRX +8.3% (US FDA Accepts sBLA for ANKTIVA Plus BCG in BCG-Unresponsive Non-Muscle Invasive Bladder Cancer with Papillary Disease)

-CAVA +7.7% (earnings, guidance)

-AMC +5.1% (CEO Adam Aron bought 250K shares at $1.377/shr)

-MRVL +4.9% (multiple broker price target raises)

-STM +4.5% (Euro semi name strength)

-LPG +3.9% (earnings, color)

-MU +3.9% (momentum amid potential memory chip shortage)

-TJX +3.8% (earnings, guidance)

-VFC +3.4% (earnings, guidance)

-PSNL +3.3% (Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services’ (CMS) Molecular Diagnostic Services Program (MolDX) has expanded coverage for the company’s NeXT Personal minimal residual disease (MRD) test)

-TOL +3.3% (earnings, guidance)

-ASML +2.9% (Euro semi name strength)

-SNDK +2.4% (memory stock strength with rising memory price concerns)

-DMAC +2.3% (announces 75% Enrollment Milestone in ReMEDy2 Phase 2/3 Acute Ischemic Stroke Trial)

Downside:

-VIAV -8.7% (prices 11.1M shares at $45.00/shr)

-NWL -2.6% (Morgan Stanley Cuts NWL to Underweight from Equal Weight, price target: $3.50)

-HAS -2.2% (earnings, guidance)

-LOW -2.1% (earnings, guidance)

Positions: None.

Hyperscaler Debt Spreads

Position: None.

The Most Important Thing

What many market participants are missing is that the non-AI economy is faring poorly as growth decelerates.

Should the rate of growth in AI capital spending moderate… Katie Bar the Doors.

Slugflation (sluggish growth and persistently high inflation) is here and is not market friendly.

Position: None  

More Tales From Nvidia: The Transfer of Risk to Retail Investors (Issue #193!)

“The AI Boom will become a story of one of the largest destructions of shareholder value in history.”

Financial Times 

Position: None