May Durable Orders Bring Confirming Data for Our 2 Newest Holdings
We received the monthly Durable Orders report for May this morning, and if you glance at the table of economic data, you’ll quickly find there are several ways to slice and dice the numbers. Headline durable goods orders, durable orders ex-defense, durable orders ex-transportation, and the same for shipments.
If you’re not used to navigating the table published by the Census Bureau, it can be understandably overwhelming. But this monthly report can be a treasure trove of useful information if you know where to look. And we’re doing just that with an eye toward the Portfolio’s positions in Paccar ($PCAR) and Boeing ($BA).
When it comes to heavy-duty and medium-duty truck demand, there’s been a sharp rebound in truck tonnage through March, the most recent data point available from the U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics. The next update will be published on July 1, but what we see in the monthly durable goods shipments data through May is very encouraging.
Around the time we get the next truck tonnage data point, we should also get the Flash June truck order data from ACT Research. May Class 8 orders increased 103% year over year and 12% month over month, marking the sixth straight month of year-over-year growth. We’ve talked about the drivers for that when we added PCAR shares to the Portfolio, and in the coming quarters, we should see the operational leverage tied to rising production levels drop to the company’s bottom line. That’s the opportunity we are looking to capture with this Portfolio position.
Turning to Boeing, our underlying thesis also centers on rising production levels, and incremental margin expansion falling to the company’s bottom line. Leafing through the May Durable Orders report we find the three-month moving average for durable shipments of nondefense aircraft and parts for April and May 2026 combined are up 8% on a year-over-year basis. Why a three-month moving average? Because the monthly data can be noisy, and our goal is to capture the underlying trend, which, as you can see below, points to rising shipment value compared to last year.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Among the many data points that tend to get overlooked is another positive one for Boeing — Manufacturer’s Unfilled Orders for Non-defense Aircraft and Parts:
And so we are on the same page, “Unfilled Orders” is Census Bureau speak for “backlog,” which is at the highest level since the data have been collected back to January 1992.
The next data point we’ll be watching for Boeing is the June 2026 delivery figure, which will likely be after the July 4th holiday weekend. Boeing’s May delivery increased to over 60 commercial aircraft compared to 47 in April. In Q1 2026, Boeing delivered 143 aircraft, and for Q2 2025, the tally was 150 commercial aircraft. Based on April and May 2026 deliveries, Boeing should sail past those figures. We’ll know by how much when we walk through that June delivery schedule.
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At the time of publication, TheStreet Pro Portfolio was long BA and PCAR.
